KAR KALİTESİ VE HİSSE SENEDİ GETİRİLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN İMKB’DE TEST EDİLMESİ

Finansal tablolar, yatırımcılar ve diğerleri tarafından çeşitli kararların alınmasında temel kaynak olarak kullanılmaktadır. Firmanın ekonomik ve finansal performansının sonucunu gösteren kar tutarı, alınan kararların pek çoğunda önemli bir bilgi kaynağıdır. Bu nedenden dolayı firma yöneticileri kar tutarını herhangi bir çıkar gözetmeksizin ya da kendi çıkarları doğrultusunda firmanın faaliyet sonuçlarını etkileyebilmektedirler. Eğer cari dönem karları firmanın finansal durumunu yansıtmıyorsa yatırımcılar gelecek dönem karlarını tahminlediklerinde yanlış kararlar verebilirler. Bu çalışmanın amacı, İstanbul Menkul Kıymetler Borsası’na kayıtlı firmaların cari dönem karıyla gelecekteki hisse senedi getirileri arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmektir. Bu çalışmada, İMKB’ye bağlı 1992-2003 dönemi 1448 adet firma yılı verileri kullanılmış ve lojistik regresyon analizlerinden yararlanılmıştır. Bu kapsamda yapılan inceleme sonucunda İMKB’ye kayıtlı firmaların cari dönem nakit akışlarının tahakkuklara göre gelecek dönem anormal hisse senedi getirileri üzerinde daha etkili olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kar Kalitesi, Karın Sürekliliği, Kar Yönetimi

TESTING OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EARNINGS QUALITY AND STOCK RETURNS IN İSTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE MARKET

Financial statements are used by investors and others as the main information source to make rational decisions. Earnings amount, which shows the economic and financial performance of a company, is an important source of information for decisionmaking. However corporate managers can influence the earnings amount either without seeking any particular interest, or according to their own interests. If current period earnings are not reflecting financial status of the company, investors can make bad decisions predicting their future period earnings. The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between current period earnings and the future stock returns for companies at ISE. Data for the years between 1992-2003 of 1448 companies at the Istanbul Stock Exchange Market ISE are used. The logistic regression is employed. The results showed that current period cash flow is more effective than accruals on the future abnormal stock returns

Keywords:

Earnings Quality, Earnings Persistence, Earnings Management,

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