Alper ASLAN, Buket ALTINOZ, Murat ESMERAY

FİNANSAL GELİŞMENİN DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de 1985-2016 dönemi için finansal gelişmenin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda özel krediler, M2 para arzı ve borsa işlem hacmi göstergelerinin dışarıdan net doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişine etkisi ARDL sınır testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar uzun dönemde değişkenler arasında bir eş bütünleşmenin varlığını göstermekle birlikte, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerinde borsa işlem hacmi ve özel kredilerin negatif bir etkiye sahip olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Kısa dönem hata düzeltme modeli sonuçlarına göre ise uzun dönemin aksine özel kredilerin doğrudan yabancı yatırımları artırıcı etkisi tespit edilmiş, borsa işlem hacmine ilişkin katsayının pozitif olmakla beraber istatistiksel olarak anlamsız olduğu görülmüştür. Bunun yanı sıra M2 para arzı değişkeninin katsayısı hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde pozitif iken, söz konusu değişkene ilişkin katsayı yalnızca kısa dönem hata düzeltme modelinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar, Finansal Gelişme, ARDL Sınır Testi

THE EFFECT OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: THE CASE OF TURKEY

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of financial development on foreign direct investment in Turkey period from 1985 to 2016. For this purpose, the effect of private credits, M2 money supply and stock trading volume indicators on foreign direct investments net inflows is analyzed by ARDL bound analysis. The results indicate that there is a cointegration between the variables in the long run and it illustrates that there is a negative effect of the stock trading volume and private credits on foreign direct investments. In the short run error correction model, contrary to the long run, the effect of private credits on the increase of foreign direct investments has been determined. In addition, while the coefficient of M2 money supply variable is positive in both short and long run, the coefficient related to this variable is statistically significant only in the short run error correction model

Keywords:

Foreign Direct Investments, Financial Development, ARDL Bound Test,

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