ENFLASYON VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME GERÇEKTEN GENÇ İŞSİZLİĞİ ETKİLER Mİ? GELİŞMEKTE OLAN 20 EKONOMİDEN KANITLAR

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde enflasyon ve ekonomik büyümenin genç işsizliği nasıl etkilediğini tartışmaktır. Bu bağlamda çalışmada enflasyon ve ekonomik büyümenin genç işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi 1991-2016 dönemi dikkate alınarak 20 gelişmekte olan ülke (Brezilya, Çek Cumhuriyeti, Çin, Filipinler, Endonezya, Güney Afrika, Hindistan, Kolombiya, Macaristan, Malezya, Meksika, Mısır, Pakistan, Peru, Polonya, Rusya, Şili, Tayland, Türkiye ve Yunanistan) için test edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki ikinci nesil panel eşbütünleşme ve panel nedensellik testleriyle araştırılmıştır. Westerlund (2008) tarafından geliştirilen Durbin-Hausman panel eşbütünleşme test sonuçlarına göre, değişkenler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, Durbin-Hausman (2012) panel nedensellik test sonuçları, hem enflasyon ile genç işsizlik arasında, hem de ekonomik büyüme ile genç işsizlik arasında istatistik olarak anlamlı olan iki yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlara dayanarak enflasyonun ve ekonomik büyümenin genç işsizliği gerçek anlamda etkilediği ve bu etkinin negatif yönde olduğu söylenebilmektedir. Bunun anlamı ise çalışma kapsamındaki gelişmekte olan ülkelerde enflasyonda ve ekonomik büyümede meydana gelecek pozitif gelişmelerin genç işsizliği azaltmada etkili olduğudur.

DO INFLATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT? EVIDENCE FROM 20 EMERGING ECONOMIES

The main objective of this paper is to discuss how inflation and economic growth affects youth unemploymentin emerging economies. Within this study, the effect of inflation and economic growth on youthunemployment was tested for 20 emerging economies (Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt,Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia Federation,South Africa, Thailand, Turkey) with the data covering the period of 1991–2016. The relationship between thevariables was tested via second generation panel cointegration and panel causality tests. According to thefindings of Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test by Westerlund (2008), there is a cointegrationrelationship between variables. In addition, Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test results haveindicated that there exists statistically significant bidirectional causality between inflation and youthunemployment and also between economic growth and youth unemployment. Based on these results, it ispossible to say that inflation and economic growth substantially affect youth unemployment and the directionof the effect is negative on youth unemployment. That means positive developments in inflation andeconomic growth lead to a decline in youth unemployment rates for selected emerging economies.

PDF

___

Ahmad, R. and Azım, P. (2010). Youth Population and The Labour Market of Pakistan: A Micro Level Study. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 48(2), 183-208.
Ar, K. N. (2014). Youth Unemployment in 21st Century: The Turkish Case. Paper presented at International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Access Address http://avekon.org/papers/1081.pdf
Assaad, R. and Krafft, C. (2016). Labour Market Dynamics and Youth Unemployment in the Middle East and North Africa: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. Economic Research Forum Working Paper Series. 993.
Bernal-Verdugo, L., Furceri, D. and Guillaume, D. (2012). Crises, Labor Market Policy, and Unemployment. IMF Working Paper. 1(65).
Breusch, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
Chinweuba, T. E. (2015). Relative Impact of Inflation and Unemployment on Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980-2013). Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 2(7), 27-44.
Cloete, A. (2015). Youth Unemployment in South Africa, A Theological Reflection Through the Lens of Human Dignity. Missionalia, 43(3), 513–525.
Çondur, F. and Bölükbaş, M. (2014). Türkiye’de İşgücü Piyasası ve Genç İşsizlik-Büyüme İlişkisi Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Amme İdaresi Dergisi, 47(2), 77-93.
Dumitrescu, E. I., and Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
Eichhorst, W. and Neder, F. (2014). Youth Unemployment in Mediterranean Countries. IZA Policy Paper, 80.
El-hamidi, F. and Wahba, J. (2005). The Effects of Structural Adjustment on Youth Unemployment in Egypt. Paper presented at 12th Annual Conference of the Economic Research Forum (Labor Research Theme). Access Address http://d-scholarship.pitt.edu/5760/
Embareka, A. (2011). The Impact of Labor Market Trends on Unemployment Rates in Egypt Using Time Series Analysis Model. Paper presented at 58th World Statistical Congress, Dublin. Access Address http://2011.isiproceedings.org/papers/950728.pdf
Ibrahim, D. H. M. and Mahyuddin, M. Z. (2017). Youth Unemployment in Malaysia: Developments and Policy Considerations. Outlook and Policy, Annual Report.
ILO (2016). World Employment and Social Outlook 2016: Trends for Youth. International Labour Office. Geneva. Access Address http://www.ilo.org/global/about-theilo/ newsroom/news/WCMS_513728/lang--ja/index.htm
ILO (2013). Global Employment Trends for Youth 2013: A Generation at Risk. International Labour Office, Geneva. Access Address http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/publicati on/wcms_212423.pdf
Li, X. (2009). Factors Affect the Employment of Youth in China. Växjö University School of Management and Economics Bachelor Thesis, Sweden.
OECD (2013). The OECD Action Plan for Youth – Giving Youth a Better Start in the Labour Market, Meeting of the OECD Council at Ministerial Level, Paris. Access Address https://www.oecd.org/els/emp/Youth-Action-Plan.pdf
Pesaran, M. H. and Smith, R. (1995). Estimating Long-run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79-113.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel. Journal of American Statistical Association, 94, 621-634.
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics (CWPE), 0435.
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 102-127.
Pesaran, M. H., and Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
Qayyum, W. (2007). Causes of Youth Unemployment in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 46(4), 611–621.
Tatoğlu, Y. F. (2012). İleri Panel Veri Analizi Stata Uygulamalı, Istanbul: Beta Yayınevi,
Umaru, A. and Zubairu, A. (2012). An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between Unemployment and Inflation in Nigeria from 1977-2009. Economics and Finance Review, 1(12), 42–61.
Umaru, A. (2014). Effects of Unemployment and Inflation on Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1986- 2012. Ahmadu Bello University, Faculty of Social Science Department of Economics, Master Thesis.
Venatus, V. K. and Agnes, I. (2010). Youth Unemployment in Nigeria: Causes and Related Issues. Canadian Social Science, 6(4), 231-237.
Vermeulen, C. (2015). Inflation, Growth and Employment in South Africa: Trends and Trade-offs. Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) Working Paper, 547.
Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193-233.
World Bank (2017). World Bank Open Data. Access Address https://data.worldbank.org/
Yu, D. (2013). Youth Unemployment in South Africa Since 2000 Revisited. Stellenbosch Economic Working Papers, 04(13).