DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞININ TÜRKİYE’NİN İTHALAT AKIMLARI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’deki döviz kuru oynaklığının ithalat akımları üzerindeki etkisini ARDL) sınır testi (bound test) ve hata düzeltme modeli kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Döviz kuru oynaklığı ise Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) modeli ile ölçülmüştür. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgulara göre, döviz kuru oynaklığı ve ithalat değişkenleri arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. Ayrıca, teorik beklentilere uygun şekilde reel efektif döviz kurlarında bir artış ithalatı olumlu etkilemektedir. Son olarak ise, yine beklentilere uygun şekilde, Türkiye’nin milli gelirinde meydana gelecek bir artışın ithalat üzerindeki etkisi pozitif olmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İthalat, Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı, Döviz

THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON TURKEY’S IMPORT FLOWS

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on import volumes in Turkey by conducting autoregressive distributed lag bound testing approach and error correction representation. The volatilities of exchange rate is measured by Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The results show that there is no statistically significant relationship between the exchange rate volatility and import volumes. In addition, an increase in real effective exchange rate reveals a significant positive impact on import volumes in line with theoretical expectations. Finally, an increase in national income produces positive effects on import as expected.

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