Potential effects of an energy transition on Turkish-Russian relations

Enerji, uluslararası ilişkiler de dahil olmak bir dizi sosyal alanı bir çok sebeple etkilemektedir. Enerji ihracatçıları ve ithalatçıları arasındaki ilişkinin, fosil enerji kaynaklarının azalan doğası gereği er veya geç de- ğişmek zorunda kalacak olan yapısı bir araştırma alanı sunmaktadır Muhetemelen yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına doğru bir enerji teka- mülü gerçekleştiğinde, ülkeler arasındaki enerji ilişkilerinin doğası da, enerji ithalatçısı ülkelerin enerji güvenliği endişeleriyle şekillenen dış politikalarının değiştiği gibi, değişecektir. Öteki taraftan, muhtemel bir enerji tekamülü halklar üzerinde ciddi etkiler yaratabilir ve bu etkiler- den bazıları da milliyetçilikleri güçlendirebilir. Diğer bir deyişle, ener- jinin geleceği ve milliyetçiliklerin yükselişi arasında bir ilişki olduğu sa- vunulabilir. Bu sebeple, bu çalışmada “enerji teknolojileri” ve “yükselen milliyetçilikler” iki değişken olarak ele alınacak ve bunlardan hareketle, maddi/teknolojik arkaplandaki değişime paralel olarak bir ilişki du- rumundan bir başkasına geçişi gözlemlemek için uygun bir örnek olan Türk-Rus ilişkilerinin geleceğine ilişkin dört senaryo üretilecektir

Enerji dönüşümünün Türkiye-Rusya ilişkilerine potansiyel etkileri

Energy is intrinsic to the social sciences, including international rela- tions, for to a variety of reasons. The course of relations between energy exporters and importers presents a field of research which is bound to change sooner or later due to falling fossil fuel reserves. When an energy transition (probably toward renewable sources) happens, just as the na- ture of energy relations between countries changes, the foreign policies of energy importers will change as well, driven as they often are by energy security concerns. Such an energy transition could have severe effects on nations and some of these effects may strengthen nationalisms. In other words, there may be a correlation between the future of energy and the rise of nationalisms. In this paper Turkish-Russian relations will be taken as a backdrop to explore the potential repercussions of such a ma- terial/technological transition. Energy technologies and risisng nation- alisms will be taken as two factors to produce four distinct scenarios for the future of said relations.

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