Özbekistan ve "arap baharı": Anna karenina ilkesi ya da potansiyel bir "devrimcin imkanı

Ortadoğu'da uzun süredir iktidarı elinde bulunduran otoriter rejimlerin ardarda devrilmesiyle sonuçlanan "Arap Baharı"nın ya da post-Sovyet coğrafyasında siyasi dönüşümlere yol açan "renkli devrimler "in Orta Asya'da tekrarlanabilirliği uluslararası kamuoyunda yoğun olarak tartışılmaktadır. Otoriter rejimle yönetilen ülkelerde muhalefet baskısı yoluyla iktidarın el değiştirebilmesi için olmazsa olmaz faktörler bulunmaktadır. Buna göre, sosyo-psikolojik, siyasal, ekonomik ve uluslararası faktörlerin elverişli bir kombinasyonundan oluşan parametreler bütünü bir devrime ya da dönüşüme yol açmaktadır. Öte yandan, bu faktörlerin herhangi birinin bulunmaması halinde, diğer bütün faktörlerin mevcudiyetine rağmen, devrim çabalarının meyve vermesi oldukça güç görünmektedir. Bu çerçevede, Özbekistan özelinde bu faktörlerin mevcudiyeti ve gücü incelendiğinde, Özbek halkının Kerimov rejiminden memnuniyetsizlik duymasına rağmen, diğer tetikleyici faktörlerin zayıf olması ya da hiç olmaması nedeniyle Özbek elitinin kısa ve orta vadede ülke siyasetindeki tahakkümünün süreceği düşünülmektedir: Bu nedenle, önümüzdeki yakın dönem içerisinde bir "Özbek Baharı"mn gerçekleşme ihtimali oldukça düşüktür.

Uzbekistan and the arab spring: The principle of anna karenina or the likelihood of a potential "revolution"

Recently, the potential of an "Arab Spring" like change or yet a colour revolution happening in Central Asia has been heatedly debated in the international arena. There are certain factors which are essential for a successful change of power in countries that are ruled by authoritarian regimes. In order for such a change an ideal number of socio-psycholog-ical, political, economic, and international factors has to come together in a most conducive combination within a set of parameters. So much so, the existence of all relevant factors except one may result in failure. In view of that, it would be relatively safe to argue that; despite the discontent of the Uzbek people with their regime, the dominance of Uzbek elite in the country's politics will persist in the short and medium term due to the absence or scarcity of certain otherfactors that has the potential to set off a "revolution" Hence a potential "Uzbek Spring" seems an unlikely occurrence at least for the foreseeable future.

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