Reel döviz kuru ve ticarete konu olmayan mallar: Gölge değişken yaklaşımı

Bu çalışmada 1986:01-2006:03 dönemi çeyrek yıllık verileri kullanılarak gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla deflatörü temelli TL/ABD Doları ikili reel döviz kuru ile ticarete konu olmayan malların göreli fiyatları arasındaki uzun dönemli ortak hareket incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla, her iki ülke için tüketici fiyatlarının toptan eşya fiyatlarına oranı ticarete konu olmayan malların fiyat düzeyleri için birer gölge değişken olarak kullanılarak bu ortak hareket, uzun dönem dengesi içerisinde yapısal kırılmaların varlığına olanak tanıyan Johansen ve diğerleri (2000) yaklaşımı çerçevesinde tahmin edilmiştir ve reel döviz kuru davranışındaki sapmaların ölçülebilmesi için sağlıklı bir zemin sağlanmıştır.

In this paper, the long-run co movement between gross domestic product deflator based TL/US Dollar bilateral real exchange rate and relative prices of nontradables was investigated by using quarterly data for the period 1986:01-2006:03. For this purpose, by using the ratio of consumer prices to whole sale prices as proxies for the price levels of the non-tradables for both countries, this long-run relationship was estimated within Johansen et al. (2000) cointegration framework which allows for the existence of structural breaks and a natural basis was provided in measuring long-run real exchange rate misalignment.

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