Using degree-day and nonlinear regression models to predict seasonal flights of Adoxophyes orana (F.V.R.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in plum orchards

Adoxophyes orana (F. v. R.) is a major pest of pome and stone fruits in Europe and Asia. Recently, it was introduced to northwestern Turkey. This study reports the first record of A. orana in plum orchards in Turkey. Moth flight activity was monitored using pheromone traps in Bursa during 2011-2013. Also, degree-day (DD) accumulations were calculated to predict moth emergence time and flight peaks in plum orchards. A. orana had three flight peaks. Depending on the year, the first, second and third flight of moths began between 2-25 May, 20 June-13 July and 7 August-14 September, respectively. Emergence dates of each flight coincided with DD accumulations of 325-391, 957-1065, and 1797-1943 DD in the same order. Richards’ function and Logistic regression models were constructed to forecast seasonal flights of this pest. The 50% moth emergence of the first, second and third flight of A. orana was predicted at 606, 1407 and 2169 DD in the Richards’ function, and 636, 1427 and 2341 DD in the Logistic model as compared with observed values at 626, 1393, and 2110 DD, respectively. Developed forecasting models in this study may help apply timely control and thus reducing the number of pesticide applications.

Keywords:

Adoxophyes orana, summerfruit tortrix; nonlinear regression; Richards’ function; Logistic model,

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