Erik bahçelerinde Adoxophyes orana (Fischer von Röslerstamm, 1834) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae)’nın mevsimsel uçuşlarını tahmin etmek için gün-derece ve doğrusal olmayan regresyon modellerinin kullanılması

Adoxophyes orana (Fischer von Röslerstamm, 1834) Avrupa'da ve Asya'da yumuşak çekirdekli ve sert çekirdekli meyvelerde önemli bir zararlıdır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de erik bahçelerinde A. orana' nın ilk defa kaydedildiğini bildirmektedir. Bursa'da 2011-2013 yılları arasında feromon tuzakları kullanılarak güvenin uçuş zamanı izlenmiştir. Ayrıca, erik bahçelerinde güve çıkış zamanını ve uçuş piklerini tahmin etmek için gün-derece (GD) toplamları hesaplanmıştır. Adoxophyes orana' nın üç uçuş piki vardır. Yıla bağlı olarak, birinci, ikinci ve üçüncü güve uçuşu sırasıyla 2-25 Mayıs, 20 Haziran-13 Temmuz ve 7 Ağustos-14 Eylül tarihleri arasında gerçekleştirilmiştir. Her uçuşun başlangıç tarihi aynı sırayla 325-391, 957-1065 ve 1797-1943 GD toplamları ile çakışmıştır. Richards'ın fonksiyonu ve lojistik regresyon modeli bu zararlının mevsimsel uçuşlarını tahmin için uygulanmıştır. Adoxophyes orana' nın birinci, ikinci ve üçüncü uçuş dönemlerinde %50 güve çıkışı, gözlemlenen 626, 1393 ve 2110 GD değerleri ile karşılaştırıldığında Richards'ın fonksiyonu kullanılarak sırasıyla 606, 1407 ve 2169 GD ve lojistik model kullanılarak ise 636, 1427 ve 2341 GD değerleri tahmin edilmiştir. Daha önce geliştirilen tahmin modelleri zamanında mücadele yapılmasını sağlayarak erik bahçelerinde pestisit uygulamalarının sayısını azaltabilir

Using degree-day and nonlinear regression models to predict seasonal flights of Adoxophyes orana (Fischer von Röslerstamm, 1834) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in plum orchards

Adoxophyes orana (Fischer von Röslerstamm, 1834) is a major pest of pome and stone fruits in Europe and Asia. This study reports the first record of A. orana in plum orchards in Turkey. Moth flight activity was monitored using pheromone traps in Bursa during 2011 to 2013. Also, cumulative degree-days (DD) were calculated to predict moth emergence time and flight peaks in plum orchards. Adoxophyes orana had three flight peaks. Depending on the year, the first, second and third flight of moths began between 2-25 May, 20 June-13 July, and 7 August-14 September, respectively. Emergence dates of each flight coincided with 325-391, 957-1065 and 1797-1943 DD in the same order. Richards’ function and logistic regression models were applied to forecast seasonal flights of this pest. The 50% moth emergence of the first, second and third flight of A. orana was predicted at 606, 1407 and 2169 DD using the Richards’ function, and 636, 1427 and 2341 DD using the logistic model as compared with observed values at 626, 1393 and 2110 DD, respectively. Previously developed forecasting models may help apply timely control and thus reducing the number of pesticide applications in plum orchards

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