The Relationship Between Trade Openness, Foreign Trade Tax Revenues and GDP in Turkey: ARDL Bounds Test Approach for 1993-2019 Period

The level of trade openness and the impact of foreign trade taxes on GDP is one of the frequently discussed topics in the literature. Especially with the globalization and economic integration movements, analyzing these factors related to the foreign trade of the countries has become a subject of vital importance and attracting attention among researchers. However, there is no generally accepted opinion regarding the extent and direction of the effects of these two factors on GDP. Because the level of trade openness (export + import) and the size of the foreign trade tax revenues vary from country to country. This study examined under the influence of Turkey. By determining the magnitude and direction of this effect in Turkey, the study is intended to contribute to the literature, decisions related to foreign trade and future researchers. In this study which is conducted for the period 1993-2019, ARDL Bounds Test Method was used. As a result of the analysis, a low and negative relationship was found in Turkey from foreign trade tax revenues to GDP. On the other hand, a positive and meaningful relationship to GDP was determined from the level of trade openness. These definitions show that additional tax obligations imposed on foreign trade in order to increase tax revenues in Turkey negatively affect growth, while the opening of the use of economic instruments to foreign investors and consumers positively affects economic growth.

___

Alagöz, M. (2009). İçsel büyüme teorisi çerçevesinde türkiye’de dış ticaret ve büyüme ilişkisi üzerine bir nedensellik analizi (1980-2006). Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 46(529), 75-83.

Bewley, R. A. (1979). The direct estimation of the equilibrium response in a linear dynamic model. economics letters, 3(4), 357-361. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(79)90011-9

Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149-192. https://doi.org /10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x

Çelik, B. (1999). İthalde alınan katma değer vergisi ve günümüzdeki önemi. Gazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 2(99), 117-125.

Çelik, R., Keskin, A., & Keskin, A. (2021). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik ve enflasyonun kayıt dışı istihdam üzerindeki etkisi: ardl sınır testi yaklaşımı. Sosyal Siyaset Konferansları Dergisi(80), 451 -474. https://doi.org /10.26650/jspc.2021.80.000053

Dar, A., & Amirkhalkhali, S. (2003). On the impact of trade openness on growth: Further evidence from OECD countries. Applied Economics, 35(16), 1761-1766. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684032000129020

Demir, Ö. (1991). İthalatta vergi uygulamaları. Hazine Ve Dış Ticaret Dergisi, 2(9), 19-35.

Demircan, E. S. (2003). Vergilendirmenin ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınmaya etkisi. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(21), 97-116.

Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal Of The American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org /10.2307/2286348

Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517

Engle, R., & Granger, C. (1987). Co-Integration and error correction: representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236

Gujarati, D. (2015). Econometrics by Example. Red Globe Press.

Huang, L.-C., & Chang, S.-H. (2013). Revisit the nexus of trade openness and GDP growth: Does the financial system matter? An International and Comparative Review, 23(7), 1038-1058. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2013.830638

Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, Econometric Society, 59(6), 1551-1580. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278

Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and ınference on cointegration--with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x

Keho, Y. (2017). The impact of trade openness on economic growth: The case of cote d’ıvoire. Cogent Economics & Finance, 5(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2017.1332820

Keskin, A., & Kara, B. (2021). The relationship between electricity generation, electricity consumption and economic growth in Turkey 1975 - 2019. S. Yüksel, & H. Dinçer içinde, Handbook of Research on Strategic Management for Current Energy Investments (s. 195- 211). Pennsylvania: IGI Global.

Kıran, B., & Güriş, B. (2011). Türkiye'de ticari ve finansal dışa açıklığın büyümeye etkisi: 1992- 2006 dönemi üzerine bir inceleme. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(2), 69–80.

Kızılot, Ş. (1998). Katma değer vergisi kanunu ve uygulaması. Yaklaşım Yayınları. Kolçak, M. (2013). Dış ticaret vergilerinin türkiye ekonomisine etkileri. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 27(4), 188-209.

MacKinnon, J. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618.

Narayan, P. K., & Smyth, R. (2006). What determines migration flows from low-ıncome to highıncome countries? An empirical investigation of fiji-u.s. migration 1972-2001.

Contemporary Economic Policy, 24(2), 332-342. https://doi.org /10.1093/cep/byj019 Pehlivan, O. (2006). Kamu Maliyesi.: Derya Kitabevi.

Pesaran, H., & Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0 : Interactive Econometric Analysis. Oxford : Oxford University Press.

Pesaran, H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326 https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616

Phillips, P., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182

Saçık, S. Y. (2009). Büyümenin bir kaynağı olarak ticari dışa açıklık. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(17), 525 - 548.

Sikwila, M. N., Ruvimbo, N. G., & Mosikari, T. J. (2014). Trade openness and GDP growth nexus in South Africa. Global Journal of Management And Business Research, 14(7).

Taban, S., & Aktar, İ. (2008). An empirical examination of the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey. Journal of Yasar University, 3(11), 1535 - 1551.

Tokatlıoğlu, M. (2005). Türkiye’de dış ticaretin vergilendirilmesi ve avrupa birliği. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 5(10), 46-72.

Topallı, N. (2016). Doğrudan sermaye yatırımları, ticari dışa açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye ve BRICS ülkeleri örneği. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 17(1), 83- 95.

Utkulu, U., & Kahyaoğlu, H. (2005). Ticari ve finansal dışa açıklık türkiye’de büyümeyi ne yönde etkiledi? Discussion Paper, No. 2005/13. Turkish Economic Association.

Utkulu, U., & Özdemir, D. (2004). Does trade liberalization cause a long run economic growth in Turkey. Economics of Planning(37), 245-266.

Yapraklı, S. (2007). Ticari ve finansal dışa açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: türkiye üzerine bir uygulama. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi(5), 67-89.

Yavuz, H., & Beşel, F. (2015). Türkiye’de uluslararası ticaret ve muamelelerden alınan vergi gelirleri - ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: frekans nedensellik analizi. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3(1), 45-55.

Yerci, C. (2005). Gümrük Mevzuatı Dahil Tüm Yönleriyle İthalatta KDV. Yaklaşım Yayıncılık.

Zaman, R. (2012). CO2 emissions, trade openness and GDP percapita : Bangladesh Perspective. MPRA Paper University Library of Munich.

Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270. https://doi.org/10.2307/1391541
Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics-Cover
  • ISSN: 2667-5625
  • Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
  • Başlangıç: 2006
  • Yayıncı: ASOS Eğitim Bilişim Danışmanlık Otomasyon Yayıncılık Reklam Sanayi ve Ticaret LTD ŞTİ