Furkan YILDIZ, Taha EĞRİ, MEHMET ÇANAKCI

Kamu Borcu Büyüme İlişkisi: Kırılgan Sekizli Ülkeler için Heterojen Panel Veri Analizi

Kamu kesiminde artan borç stokunun büyümeyi nasıl etkilediği sorusuna literatürde gösterilen ilgi giderek artmaktadır. Geçmişte yapılan araştırmalar gelişmiş ülkeler üzerine yoğunlaşsa da borç-büyüme ilişkisi gelişmekte olan ülkeler için de önem arz etmektedir. Bu bağlamda, yüksek enflasyon, cari açık ve dış kaynak bağımlılığından dolayı “Kırılgan Sekizli” olarak isimlendirilen Arjantin, Brezilya, Endonezya, Güney Afrika, Hindistan, Rusya, Şili ve Türkiye için kamu borç stoku ve büyüme arasındaki ilişki ele alınmıştır. İncelemeye konu olan bu ülkeler için 1992-2017 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak panel veri analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ele alınan veri setinin uzun dönem katsayılarının tahmini için Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup (AMG) ve Ortak İlişkili Etkiler Modeli (CCE) tahmincilerine dayalı hata düzeltme modeli kullanılmıştır. Bu yöntemler hem kesit bağımlılığını, hem de kesitler arasındaki parametrelerin değişkenliklerini göz önüne aldığından bunların varlığı etkin bir yöntemlerdir. Bulunan sonuçlara göre hem grup düzeyinde hem de ülke düzeyinde kamu borç stokunda yaşanan bir artışın büyüme üzerinde negatif bir etkisi bulunmaktadır.Bu durumun altında yatan neden söz konusu ülkelerde özellikle bütçe açığı ve cari açık sorunlarının süreklilik arz etmesi ve alınan borcun bu açıkların finansmanında kullanılmasıdır. Bu sebeple ülke hükümetleri doğrudan yabancı yatırımların kendilerini tercih etmesi için gerekli olanhukuki, iktisadi, fiziki ve beşerî altyapıyı sağlamalarının ne kadar önemli olduğu gözden geçirilmelidir.

Public Debt-Growth Nexus: Heterogeneous Panel Data Analysis for Fragile Eight Countries

There is a growing interest in the literature on the question of how the increased debt stock affects growth in the public sector. Although researches focus on developed countries, the debt-growth relationship is important for developing countries also. In this connection, due to high inflation, current account deficit and foreign resource dependency, the relationship between public debt stock and growth are discussed for "Fragile Octet" named as Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India, Russia, Chile, and Turkey. Panel data analysis was carried out for these countries subject to research, using annual data from 1992-2017. Error correction model based on Extended Average Group (AMG) and Common Associated Effects Model (CCE) estimators were used for the estimation of the long-term coefficients of the data set discussed. These methods are effective methods considering both the cross-section dependency and the parameter differences between the cross-sections. According to the results, an increase in public debt stock at both group and country-level has a negative effect on growth. The underlying reason for this situation is especially the continuity of budget deficit and current account deficit problems in these countries and the use of debt to finance these deficits. For this reason, governments of the country should be reviewed how important to provide the legal, economic, physical, and human infrastructure required for foreign direct investments to prefer themselves.

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Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics-Cover

ISSN: 2667-5625
Yayın Aralığı: Yılda 4 Sayı
Başlangıç: 2006
Yayıncı: ASOS Eğitim Bilişim Danışmanlık Otomasyon Yayıncılık Reklam Sanayi ve Ticaret LTD ŞTİ