Karma Savaş Teorisi ve Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı

2014 yılında başlayan Rusya–Ukrayna Savaşı ve Rusya’nın Batılı devletler veuluslararası örgütler tarafından karma savaş olarak adlandırılan askerifaaliyetleri; teorisyenler tarafından düşük yoğunluklu çatışma, dördüncü nesil,birleşik savaş gibi kavramlarla tanımlanmaya çalışılan Soğuk Savaş sonrasıçatışmaların niteliğine yönelik tartışmaları tekrar başlatmıştır. Çalışma bubilgiler ışığında karma savaşın yeni bir savaş türü olup olmadığını incelemeyiamaçlamaktadır. Öncelikle Soğuk Savaş sonrası döneme odaklanarak karmasavaş teorisinin gelişimini ortaya koymaktadır. Daha sonra Rusya’nın UkraynaSavaşı dönemindeki askeri faaliyetlerini karma savaş teorisi çerçevesindeincelemektedir. Çalışmada Soğuk Savaş sonrası dönem çatışmaların tanımlayandiğer teoriler gibi karma savaşın da yeni bir savaş biçimi olmadığı ve Rusya’nınaskeri faaliyetlerinin savaş tarihi için devrimsel nitelikte bir yenilikkazandırmadığını ileri sürmektedir.

Hybrid War Theory and Russian-Ukrainian Conflicts

The Russian-Ukrainian conflicts started in 2014 and Russian military activities, called hybrid warfare by the western states and international organizations, reopened the debate on the characteristics of Post-Cold War conflicts, which scholars have used the terms such as “low intensity warfare”, “fourth generation warfare” or “compound warfare”. This paper aims to assess if hybrid warfare constitutes a new form of warfare. It first describes the evolution of hybrid warfare theory mainly focusing on the post-Cold War era. It then basically examines Russian military activities during the 2014 Russian-Ukrainian conflicts within the framework of hybrid warfare theory. It will be argued that hybrid warfare, like the other theories that describe post-Cold War conflicts, does not constitute a new form of warfare and Russian military activities in Ukraine did not provide a breakthrough in warfare history.

PDF

___

Ash, Lucy. “How Russia Outfoxes its Enemies.” BBC News 29 January 2015. htttp://www.bbc.com.news.magazine-31020283 Web. 02.06.2016.
Boot, Max. “The Evolution of Irregular War: Insurgents and Guerillas from Akkadia to Afghanistan.” Foreign Affairs 92.2 (2013): 100-114.
Coalson, Robert. “Top Russian General Lays Bare Putin's Plan for Ukraine.” Huffington Post 9 (2014).
Defense Technical Information Center. “Irregular Warfare: Countering Irregular Threats Joint Operation Concept Second Version.” 17 May 2010. http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/concepts/joint_concepts /joc_iw_v2. pdf Web. 03.08.2017.
Defense Technical Information Center. “JP-1: Doctrine for the Armed Forces of the United States.” 2013. http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/jp1.pdf. Web. 25.08.2017. “Die Russen Nutzen Alle Werkzeuge.” Die Zeit 29 January 2015.
Erol, Mehmet Seyfettin and Şafak Oğuz. “Hybrid Warfare Studies and Russia’s Example in Crimea.” Gazi Akademik Bakış 9.17 (Winter 2015): 261- 277.
“Germany’s Domestic Intelligence Chief Accuses Russia of Cyberwarfare.” Deutsche Welle 13 May 2016.
Golts, Alexander. “Are Color Revolutions a New Form of War.” The Moscow Times 02 June 2014.
Grobe, Stefan. “Stoltenberg: NATO Massively Stepping up Military Presence in Europe”, Euro News. 25 April 2015. http://www.euronews.com /2015/03/25/stoltenberg-nato-massively-stepping-up-military-presence - in-europe/ Web. 04.04.2016.
Hoffman, Frank G. “Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars.” Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. December 2007, http://www. potomacinstitute.org/publications/Potomac_HybridWar_0108.pdf. Web. 10.03.2016.
Hoffman, Frank G. “Hybrid Warfare and Challenges.” Joint Force Quarterly 52.1 (2009): 34-48.
“Interview with President Putin” President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru /events/president/news/20366.i Web. 26.03.2017.
Johnson, David. Hard Fighting: Israel in Lebanon and Gaza. Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2011.
Kaldor, Mary. New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. Cambridge: Polity Press, 2012.
Kober, Avi. “The Israeli Defence Forces in the Second Lebanon War: Why the Poor Performance.” The Journal of Strategic Studies 31.1 (2008): 3-40.
Kofman, Michael and Matthew Rojansky. A Closer look at Russia’s “Hybrid War”. Kennan Cable No.7, April 2015.https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/190090 /5-kennan%20cable-rojansky%20kofman.pdf. Web. 10.12.2018.
Macfarquhar, Neil. “Putin Says He Weighed Nuclear Alert over Crimea.” The New York Times 15 March 2015.
Mansoor, Peter R. “Introduction” Hybrid Warfare: Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present. Eds. Williamson Murray and Peter R. Mansoor. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012. 1-17.
Murray, Williamson and Peter R. Mansoor. Hybrid Warfare: Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2012.
NATO, “Closing Press Conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the Meetings of NATO Foreign Ministers in Antalya, Turkey”, 14 May 2015. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_119432.htm. Web.15.05.2017.
Oğuz, Şafak. “Is Hybrid Warfare Really New?” Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi 72.3 (2017): 525-540.
Pawlak, Patryk. Countering Hybrid Threats: EU-NATO Cooperation. March 2017.http://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?refere nce=EPRS,_BRI(2017)599315. Web. 04.10.2017.
Polityuk, Pavel. “Ukraine Sees Russian Hand in Cyber Attacks on Power Grid.” Reuters 12 February 2016.
Pukhov, Ruslan. “Nothing Hybrid About Russia’s War in Ukraine.” The Moscow Times 27 May 2015.
Puyvelde, Damien Van. “Hybrid War – Does it Even Exist?” NATO Review, 2015.http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2015/also-in-2015/hybridmodernfuture-warfare-russia-ukraine/en/index. Htm. Web. 12.06.2017.
Renz, Bettina and Hanna Smith. “Russia and Hybrid Warfare: Going Beyond the Label.” Aleksantari Papers, 2016. https://helda.helsinki.fi/handle /10138/175291. Web. 22.05.2017.
“Russian Troops Ordered Home from Surprise Games.” Russia Today 04 March 2014.
“Russia’s New Tactics of War Shouldn’t Fool Anyone.” The Washington Post 27 August 2014.
“Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine.” https://www.offiziere.ch/wpcontent/uploads-001/2015/08/ Russia-s-2014-Military-Doctrine.pdf. Web. 22.07.2017.
Shuster, Simon. “Putin’s Man in Crimea is Ukraine’s Worst Nightmare.” Time 10 March 2014.
UK Government. “National Security Strategy and Strategic Defense and Security Review 2015: A Secure and Prosperous UK.” 2015. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-security-strategyand-strategic-defence-and-security-review-2015. Web.22.07.2017. United States Government Accountability Office. “Hybrid Warfare: Briefing to the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Unconventional Threats and Capabilities.” http://www.gao.gov/assets/100/97053.pdf. Web.11.09.2016.
US Army. “Unified Land Operations ADP. 3.0.” October 2011. https://www.army.mil/e2/rv5_downloads/info/references/ADP_30_ULO_ Oct_2011_APD.pdf. Web. 05.08.2017.
“Vladimir Putin. “Interview to the Italian Newspaper Il Corriere della Sera.” Corriere della Sera. http://www.corriere.it/english/15_giugno_07/vladimirputin-interview-to-the-italian-newspaper-corriere-sera-44c5a66c-0d12- 11e5-8612-1eda5b996824.shtml?refresh_ce-cp. Web. 14.06.2016.
Walker, Robert G. “Spec Fi: The U.S. Marine Corps and Special Operations”. (MA Thesis). Naval Post-Graduate School, 1998.
Wijk, Rob de. “Hybrid Conflict and the Changing Nature of Actors.” The Oxford Handbook of War. Eds. Julian Lindley-French and Yves Boyer, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012. 358-372.