Fatih BAKANOĞULLARI, Erdem BAHAR, Cantekin KIVRAK, Mehmet GÜR

Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Analysis in Kırklareli province

Dünyadaki küresel ısınma bu yüzyılda iklim değişikliğine neden olmaktadır. Tarım, iklim değişikliğinden en fazla etkilenebilecek sektörlerden biridir. Tarımsal üretim yağış ve sıcaklıktaki değişimlerden etkilenir. Bu iki parametre deki değişimler, sıcaklıkların artması ve buna paralel olarak yağış miktarındaki düzensizlikler ekolojik dengeyi bozmakta, çölleşme ve kuraklık sorunlarını beraberinde getirmektedir. Trakya bölgesinde tarımsal üretim büyük ölçüde meteorolojik faktörlere bağlıdır. Bu nedenle iklim faktörlerindeki değişikliklerin bölge tarımını olumlu veya olumsuz yönde etkilemesi beklenmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Kırklareli ilinde 1963-2019 yılları arasında meteorolojik ve tarımsal kuraklığın sıklığını ve şiddetini iki indeks ile belirlemektir. Aylık, mevsimsel, altı aylık ve yıllık tarımsal kuraklığı belirlemek için Standardize Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) kullanılmıştır. Yıllık tarımsal kuraklık sonuçlarına göre, on yıl hafif kurak (1969, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2011, 2016 ve 2019), beş yıl orta kurak (1983, 1989, 1996, 2008 ve 2015), bir yıl şiddetli kurak (1994) ve iki yıl aşırı kurak (2000 ve 2001) yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır. Meteorolojik kuraklığı belirlemek için bir diğer kuraklık indeksi olan Standardize Yağış İndeksi (SPI) kullanılmıştır. Yıllık meteorolojik kuraklık sonuçlarına göre, Sekiz yıl hafif kurak (1964, 1969, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991 ve 2011), yedi yıl orta kurak (1983, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996 ve 2008) ve iki yıl aşırı kurak ( 2000, 2001) yıl olarak hesaplanmıştır. Doğrusal korelasyon analizi sonuçlarına göre, SPI ve SPEI değerleri için yıllık, altı aylık (İlkbahar-Yaz) ve üç aylık sadece kış ve ilkbahar dönemleri arasında sırasıyla (R2=0.871, R2=0.901, R2=0.974 ve R2=0.919) iyi bir korelasyon elde edildi. 57 yıllık gözlem periyodunda SPEI yöntemi ile de 18, SPI yöntemi ile 17 yıl kurak yıl olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu toplam kurak yılların (SPEI 12 yıl) %67 (SPI 13 yıl) %76 gibi büyük bir bölümü 1982 ile 2002 yılları arası meydana gelmiştir. Tarımsal üretim açısından yağış, sıcaklık ve evapotranspirasyon verileri ile hesaplanan SPEI kuraklık indeksi tarımsal üretim ve kuraklık değerlendirmelerinde daha hassas sonuçlar verdiği için kuraklığın azaltılması politikalarında karar vericilere daha iyi değerlendirme imkânı verebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

İklim Değişikliği, Kuraklık İndeksleri, Evapotranspirasyon, Yağış, Trakya bölgesi

Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Analysis in Kırklareli province

The Global warming in the world cause to the climate change in this century. Agriculture is one of the sectors that can be most affected by climate change. Agricultural production is affected by precipitation and temperature variables. Due to the changes in these two parameters, the increase in the temperatures and the changes in the amount of precipitation in parallel with this disrupt the ecological balance and bring along the problems of desertification and drought. Agricultural production is highly dependent on meteorological factors in Thrace region. For this reason, it is expected that changes in climatic factors will affect the agriculture of the region positively or negatively. The aim of this study is to determine the frequency and severity of meteorological and agricultural drought with two indexes between 1963-2019 years in Kırklareli province. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to determine monthly, seasonal, six monthly and annual agricultural drought. According to annual agricultural drought results, it was calculated ten years mild arid (1969, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2011, 2016, and 2019), five years moderate arid (1983, 1989, 1996, 2008, and 2015), one year severe arid (1994), and two years extreme arid (2000 and 2001). Another drought index which is Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to determine meteorological drought. According to annual meteorological drought results, Eight years mild arid (1964, 1969, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1990, 1991, and 2011), seven years moderate arid (1983, 1989, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1996, and 2008), and two years extreme arid (2000, 2001) was figured out. According to linear correlation analysis, a good correlation was obtained for SPI and SPEI values, between annual, six monthly (Spring-Summer), and three monthly only winter and spring periods (R2=0.871, R2=0.901, R2=0.974, and R2=0.919), respectively. In the 57-year observation period; 18 years were determined as the arid year with SPEI index and 67% of these total arid years (12 arid years) occurred and 17 years were determined as the arid year with SPI index and 76% of these total arid years (13 arid years) occurred, between 1982 and 2002 years. The SPEI drought index which use precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration data could give much good results to policy makers in drought mitigation policies in terms of giving results that are more accurate in agricultural production and drought assessments.

Keywords:

Climate Change, Drought Indexes, Evapotranspiration, Precipitation, Thrace region,

PDF

___

Alkan, A, Tombul, M. (2022). Temporal drought assessment using various indices of the Seyhan and Ceyhan Basins, Turkey. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 20(1):555-569.
Bae, S., Lee, S.H., Yoo, S.H., Kim, T. (2018). Analysis of drought intensity and trends using the modified SPEI in South Korea from 1981 to 2010. Water, 10, 327.
Bakanoğulları, F. (2020). Defining of drought using two methods (SPEI and SPI) in rural watersheds: A case study kumdere watershed. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 7:1:146-156.
Bakanoğulları, F., Yeşilköy, S. (2014). Determination of meteorological and hydrological drought in Damlıca creek watershed in Çatalca-Istanbul, Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 6, 1152-1157.
Chen, S., Zhang, L., Liu, X., Guo, M., She, D. (2018). The use of SPEI and TVDI to assess temporal-spatial variations in drought conditions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China. Advances in Meteorology, Article ID 9362041, 1-11.
Çaldağ, B., Şaylan, L., Toros, H., Bakanoğulları, F. (2004). Drought Analysis in Northwest Turkey. Agroenvironment, 20-24 October, P. 169-179. Udine, Italy.
Çamalan, G., Akgündüz, A.S., Ayvacı, H., Çetin, S., Arabacı, H., Coşkun, M. (2017). SPEI Indisine Göre Türkiye Geneli Kuraklık Değişim ve Eğilim Projeksiyonları. IV. Türkiye İklim Değişikliği Kongresi, TİKDEK. 5 – 7 Temmuz. İstanbul, Türkiye.
Çetin, M., Aksoy, H., Önöz, B.; Eriş, E., Yüce, M.İ., Selek, B., Aksu, H., Burgan, H.İ., Eşit, M., Çavuş, Y., Orta, S. (2018). Deriving Accumulated Precipitation Deficits from Drought Severity-Duration Frequency Curves: A Case Study in Adana Province, Turkey. 1st International Congress on Agricultural Structures and Irrigation, 26-28 September, P. 39-48. Antalya, Turkey.
Dai, A. (2011). Drought under global warming: A review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2: 45–65.
Falzoi, S., Acquaotta, F., Pulina, M.A., Fratianni, S., (2019). Hydrological drought analysis in continental temperate and Mediterranean environment during the period 1981-2017. Italian Journal of Agrometeorology, (3): 13-23.
Heim, R.R. (2002). A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83: 1149–1165.
Keskiner, A.D., Cetin, M., Şimşek, M., Akin, S., Çetiner, I. (2019). Probabilistic regional meteorological drought analysis with standardized precipitation index and normal precipitation index methods in geographic information systems environment: A case study in Seyhan basin. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 28: 7: 5675-5688.
Konukçu, F., Deveci, H., Altürk, B. (2020). Modelling of the effect of climate change on wheat yield in Thrace region with AquaCrop and WOFOST models. Journal of Tekirdağ Agricultural Faculty. 17(1): 77-96.
Koutroulis, A.G., Vrochidou, A.E.K., Tsanis, I.K. (2011). Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought for the island of Crete. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 12: 206–226.
Kwak, J.W., Lee, S.D., Kim, Y.S., Kim, H.S. (2013). Return period estimation of droughts using drought variables from standardized precipitation index. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association, 46: 795–805.
McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J., Kleist, J. (1993). The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales. In: Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA: 179–184.
Nedealcov, M., Raileanu, V., Sirbu, R., Cojocari, R. (2015). The use of standardized indicators (SPI and SPEI) in predicting droughts over the Republic of Moldova Territory. Pesd, 9(2): 149-157.
Öztürk, İ., Korkut, K.Z. (2017). Stability parameters for yield and yield component of the bread wheat genotypes under various drought stress condition. Journal of Tekirdağ Agricultural Faculty, the Special Issue of 2nd International Balkan Agriculture Congress: 77-82.
Rossi, G. (2000). Drought Mitigation Measures: A Comprehensive Framework. In Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe; Voght J., Somma F., Eds.; Kluwer Academic Publishers: Dordrecht, the Netherlands, p.233–246.
Stagge, J.H., Tallaksen, L.M., Gudmundsson, L., Loonc, A.F.V., Stahl, K. (2015). Candidate distributions for climatological drought indices (SPI and SPEI). International Journal of Climatology. 35: 4027–4040.
Svoboda, M.D., LeComte, D., Hayes, M., Heim, R., Gleason, K., Angel, J., Miskus, D. (2002). The drought monitor. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83: 1181–1190.
Şener, E. (2021). Standartlaştırılmış yağış indeksi ile kuraklık indekslerinin eğilim analizi: Akşehir Örneği . Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Fen ve Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 21 (6), 1470-1484.
Tefera, A.S., Ayoade, J.O., Bello, N.J. (2019). Comparative analyses of SPI and SPEI as drought assessment tools in Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia. SN Applied Sciences 1, 1265.
Thornthwaite, C.W. (1948). An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geographical Review, 38: 55–94.
Tong, S., Bao, Y., Te, R., Ma, Q., Ha, S., Lusi, A. (2017). Analysis of drought characteristics in Xilingol grassland of Northern China based on SPEI and Its Impact on vegetation. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Volume 2017, Article ID 5209173, 1-11.
Türkeş, M., Tatlı, H. (2009). Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology 29: 2270–2282.
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J.I. (2010a). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of Climate, 23: 1696–1718.
Vicente-Serrano, SM, Beguería, S, López-Moreno, J.I., Angulo, M., El Kenawy, A. (2010b). A new global 0.5 gridded dataset (1901–2006) of a multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought index datasets based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11(4):1033–1043.
Wilhite, D.A., Svoboda, M.D., Hayes, M.J. (2007). Understanding the complex impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness. Water Resources Management, 21: 763–774.
Wilhite, D.A. (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: Concept and definitions. In drought: A global assessment; Wilhite D. A., Ed.; Routledge: London, UK, pp: 3-18.
Wilhite, D.A., Glantz, M.H. (1985). Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions. Water International, 10: 111–120.