Uluslararası fındık ticaretinin gelişimi ve ihracat etkisinin belirleyicileri

Amaç: Başta Türkiye olmak üzere fındık ticareti yapan ülkelerin, ihracat performansının belirleyicilerinin tespit edilmesi amaçlanmıştır.Tasarım/Metodoloji /Yaklaşım: Bu çalışmada, uluslararası fındık ticareti dinamiklerinin 1990-2018 yılları arasındaki evrimi öncelikle karmaşık ağ analizi ile incelenmektedir. Daha sonra aynı dönem için panel veri analizi kullanılarak uluslararası fındık ticaretinin belirlenmesi analiz edilmiştir. Ağ yaklaşımı ile karmaşık sistem özellikleri ortaya çıkarıldıktan sonra, bir panel veri analizinde bağımlı değişken olarak ağ analizinden elde edilen bulgular olan ihracat etkisinin yüksek dereceli bir göstergesi (odak merkeziliği) kullanılmıştır.Bulgular: Panel yaklaşımında, uluslararası pazardaki ilk beş ülkenin (Türkiye, İtalya, Gürcistan, Şili ve Azerbaycan) odak merkezilikleri ile 1996-2018 dönemi için hasat edilen alan arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişkiyi inceledik. Bu kapsamda; karmaşık ağ yaklaşımı, Türkiye'nin her zaman uluslararası fındık ticaret ağının lideri olduğunu ve ayrıca İtalya, Gürcistan, Şili ve Azerbaycan'ın yükselişte olduğunu göstermiştir. Panel eşbütünleşme sonuçları, hasat edilen alanın, İtalya dışındaki fındık üreticisi ülkelerin (Türkiye, Azerbaycan, Gürcistan ve Şili) odak merkeziklikleri üzerinde olumlu bir etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bu etki en yüksek Azerbaycan'dadır ve Azerbaycan'ı Gürcistan ve Şili izlemektedir. Hasat edilen alan, Türkiye'de odak merkeziliği üzerinde en düşük etkiye sahiptir.Özgünlük/Değer: İki farklı yöntem kullanılarak elde edilen bulgularla fındık ihracatında, fındık ekili alanının önemini ortaya koyması açısından çalışma literatüre önemli bir katkı sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Tarımsal Ekonomi, Fındık, Dış Ticaret, Kompleks Ağ Analizi.

The evolution of international hazelnut trade and determinants of export impact

Purpose: It is aimed to examine the determinants of export impact of countries which trade hazelnuts, especially Turkey.Design/Methodology/Approach: In this study, the evolution of the dynamics of international hazelnut trade is examined from 1990 to 2018 via complex network analysis. Then, we analyzed the determinants of international hazelnut trade by using panel data analysis for the same period. After revealing complex system features with network approach, a high-degree indicator of export impact (hub centrality), which is the ﬁndings obtained from network analysis, has been used as the dependent variable in panel data analysis.Findings: In the panel approach, we examined the long-run relationship between hub centralities of the top ﬁve countries (Turkey, Italy, Georgia, Chile, and Azerbaijan) and area harvested for the period 1996-2018. Within this scope; the complex network approach showed that Turkey is always the leader of the international hazelnut trade network while Italy, Georgia, Chile, and Azerbaijan are the countries on the rise. Panel cointegration results revealed that the area harvested has a positive impact on hub centralities of hazelnut producer countries (Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Chile), except Italy. This impact is the highest in Azerbaijan, and Georgia and Chile follow this country. Area harvested has the lowest impact on hub centrality of Turkey.Originality/Value: The study makes an important contribution to the literature in terms of revealing the importance of hazelnut area harvested in hazelnut export with the ﬁndings obtained by using two diﬀerent methods.

Keywords:

Agricultural Economics, Hazelnut, Foreign Trade, Complex Network Analysis.,

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