Populist Foreign Policy and its Consequences: The Case of Poland Under the Rule of The Law and Justice Party

The rise of populism makes it necessary to study its influence on international relations. This concerns in particular the new members of the EU and NATO in Central Europe, which have witnessed a “democratic backsliding” since 2010. The analysis of Polish foreign policy under the rule of Law and Justice brings important insights into that issue. Polish authorities have critically assessed the achievements of Polish diplomacy since 1989 and Polish diplomats, have been considered to be elitist and cosmopolite. Polish foreign policy looks for enemies, rather than for partners – both at state (Russia, Germany) and non-state level (immigrant-refugee threat). Polish authorities are critical in particular towards the EU, which is considered to act in favour of Germany and France and against Poland’s sovereignty. A growing isolation of Poland is to be counterbalanced by a reliance on politically irrelevant (Hungary) or distantly remote partners (United States under Donald Trump). The foreign policy of Law and Justice is largely ineffective: relations with most European partners have deteriorated, because of its isolation and deterioration of democratic standards Poland has become more vulnerable to Russian pressure and finally since the electoral victory of Joe Biden, Poland cannot count any more on the support of the US. 

___

  • Ágh, A. Decline of democracy in the ECE and the core-periphery divide: rule of law conflicts of Poland and Hungary with the EU. Journal of Comparative Politics 11 (2), 31 – 49.
  • Bakker, R., et al. (2019). Chapel Hill Expert Survey 2020. Retrieved from https://www.chesdata.eu/2019-chapel-hill-expert-survey.
  • Balcer, A. (2019, 7 November). National populism at the heart of Europe: When will the clash come? Retrieved from https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_national_populism_at_the_heart_of_europe_when_will_the_clash_com/.
  • Balfour, R., et al. (2016). Europe’s troublemakers. The populist challenge to foreign policy. Bruxelles, Belgium: European Policy Centre. Retrieved from https://wms.flexious.be/editor/plugins/imagemanager/content/2140/PDF/2016/Europe_s_troublemakers_complete_book.pdf.
  • Barcz J., et al. (2018), Raport. Trzy lata polityki zagranicznej rządu Prawa i Sprawiedliwości, Warszawa, Poland: Instytut Bronisława Komorowskiego. Retrieved from http://bronislawkomorowski.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/RAPORT-Trzy-lata-polityki-zagranicznej-rz%C4%85du-Prawa-i-Sprawiedliwo%C5%9Bci-3.pdf.
  • Boucher, J.-C. & Thies, C. G. (2019). “I Am a Tariff Man”: The Power of Populist Foreign Policy Rhetoric under President Trump. The Journal of Politics 81 (2), 41 – 66. https://doi.org/10.1086/702229.
  • Braun, M. (2020). Postfunctionalism, Identity and the Visegrad Group. Journal of Common Market Studies 58 (4), 925 – 940. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12994.
  • Britannica (n.d.). “Populism”. Retrieved from https://www.britannica.com/topic/populism.
  • Brzozowski, A. (2020, 18 September). Poland rejects southern Europe’s push for mandatory relocation of migrants. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/poland-rejects-southern-europes-push-for-mandatory-relocation-of-migrants/.
  • Buras, P. (2020, 16 December). Biden’s victory: the consequences for Poland. Balkan Insight. Retrieved from https://balkaninsight.com/2020/11/16/bidens-victory-the-consequences-for-poland/.
  • Cadier, D. (2019). How Populism Spills Over Into Foreign Policy. Retrieved from https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/78102.
  • Cadier, D. & Szulecki, K. (2020). Populism, historical discourse and foreign policy: the case of Poland’s Law and Justice government. International Politics 57, 990–1011. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-020-00252-6.
  • Chryssogelos, A. (2017). Populism in Foreign Policy. In Oxford Research Encyclopedias. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.467.
  • Cianetti, L., Dawson, J., Hanley, S. (2018). Rethinking “democratic backsliding” in Central and Eastern Europe – looking beyond Hungary and Poland. East European Politics 34 (3), 243-256. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2018.1491401.
  • Cooley, A. & Nexon, D. (2020, 25 April). Why Populists Want a Multipolar World. Foreign Policy. Retrieved from https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/25/populists-multipolar-world-russia-china/.
  • Cooper, A. (2018). Populism and the Domestic Challenge to Diplomacy. In V. Stanzel (Ed.), New Realities in Foreign Affairs: Diplomacy in the 21st Century. Berlin, Germany: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik.
  • Cowell, A. (2018, 19 September). Fort Trump? Poland Makes a Play for a U.S. Military Base. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/19/world/europe/poland-fort-trump.html.
  • Csehi, R. & Zgut, E. (2021). ‘We won’t let Brussels dictate us’: Eurosceptic populism in Hungary and Poland. European Politics and Society 22 (1), 53 – 68. https://doi.org/10.1080/23745118.2020.1717064 (accessed: 19.02.2021).
  • Destradi, S. & Plagemann, J. (2019). Populism and International Relations: (Un)predictability, personalisation, and the reinforcement of existing trends in world politics. Review of International Studies, 45 (5), 711-730. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0260210519000184.
  • Duda, A. (2017, 19 September). General Debate of the Seventy-Second Session Of The General Assembly. Statement by H.E. Andrzej Duda, President of the Republic of Poland. Retrieved from https://gadebate.un.org/sites/default/files/gastatements/72/pl_en.pdf.
  • Eatwell, R. & Goodwin, M. (2018). National Populism. The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy. London, UK: Penguin.
  • European Commission (n.d.). EU expenditure and revenue 2014-2020. Data 2000 – 2019. Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/budget/library/figures/internet-tables-all_test.xls.
  • European Council (2019, 19 November). European Council meeting. Conclusions. Retrieved from https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/41768/12-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf.
  • Eurostat (n.d.). Real GDP per capita. Retrieved from https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/sdg_08_10/default/table?lang=en.
  • Fomina, J. & Kucharczyk, J. (2016). The Specter Haunting Europe: Populism and Protest in Poland, Journal of Democracy 27 (4), 58 – 68. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2016.0062.
  • Foy, H. & Buckley, N. (2016, 6 September). Orban and Kaczynski vow ‘cultural counter-revolution’ to reform EU. Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/e825f7f4-74a3-11e6-bf48-b372cdb1043a.
  • Friis, K. (Ed.) (2017). NATO and Collective Defence in the 21st Century: An Assessment of the Warsaw Summit. London, UK: Routledge.
  • Fritz, P. (2020). A pipeline that divides: Germany, Poland and Nord Stream. Retrieved from https://notesfrompoland.com/2020/09/25/a-pipeline-that-divides-germany-poland-and-nord-stream/.
  • Giurlando, P. (2020). Populist foreign policy: the case of Italy. Canadian Foreign Policy Journal. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2020.1819357.
  • Górka, M. (2018). The Three Seas Initiative as a Political Challenge for the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Politics in Central Europe 14 (3), 55 – 73. https://doi.org/10.2478/pce-2018-0018.
  • Goździak, E.M. & Márton, P. (2018). Where the Wild Things Are: Fear of Islam and the Anti-Refugee Rhetoric in Hungary and in Poland. Central and Eastern European Migration Review 7 (2), 125-151. https://doi.org/10.17467/ceemr.2018.04.
  • Grzebyk, P. (2017). Amendments of January 2018 to the Act on the Institute of National Remembrance – Commission for the Prosecution of Crimes against the Polish Nation in Light of International Law. Polish Yearbook of International Law 37, 287 – 300. https://doi.org/10.7420%2Fpyil2017o.
  • Hackmann, J. (2018). Defending the “Good Name” of the Polish Nation: Politics of History as a Battlefield in Poland, 2015–2018. Journal of Genocide Research 20 (4), 587 – 606. https://doi.org/10.1080/14623528.2018.1528742.
  • Hakkı, T. (2020). The formulation and implementation of populist foreign policy: Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. Mediterranean Politics (2020). Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2020.1833160.
  • International Institute for Strategic Studies (2020). Military Balance 2020. London, UK: International Institute for Strategic Studies.
  • Judis, J. B. (2016). The Populist Explosion: How the Great Recession Transformed American and European Politics. New York, NY: Columbia Global Reports.
  • Kane, C. & McCulloch, C. (2017). Populism and Foreign Policy: Deepening Divisions and Decreasing Efficiency. Global Politics Review 3 (2), 39 – 52.
  • Korosteleva, E. (2014). Eastern Partnership: A New Opportunity for the Neighbours. London, UK: Routledge.
  • Kostrzewa-Zorbas, G. (2018). German reparations to Poland for World War II on global background. Studia Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego 8 (14), 207 – 220. Retrieved from http://sbn.wat.edu.pl/pdf-132131-60755?filename=NIEMIECKIE%20REPARACJE%20DLA.pdf.
  • Kovács, K. & Scheppele, K. L. (2018). The fragility of an independent judiciary: Lessons from Hungary and Poland—and the European Union. Communist and Post-Communist Studies 51 (3), 189-200, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2018.07.005.
  • Kowal, P. (2019). A New Perspective in US Policy. In A. Bieńczyk-Missala (Ed.), The great power and Poland 1919-2019 : 100th Anniversary of Polish-American Relations (pp. 135 – 137). Warsaw, Poland: Aspra-JR. Retrieved from https://cdn.jankarski.net/files/great-power-and-poland-en-internet.pdf.
  • Krastev, I. & Holmes, S. (2019). The Light that Failed: A Reckoning. London, UK: Penguin Books.
  • Krekó, P., et al. (2018). Beyond Populism. Tribalism in Poland and Hungary. Budapest, Hungary: Political Capital Institute. Retrieved from https://www.isp.org.pl/en/publications/beyond-populism-tribalism-in-poland-and-hungary.
  • Kuźniar, R. (2009). Poland's foreign policy after 1989 Warsaw: Poland. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar.
  • Kuźniar, R. & Szeptycki, A. (2005). The Role of the United States in the Foreign Policy of the Third Republic of Poland. In L. Kolarska-Bobińska, J. Kucharczyk, P.M. Kaczyński (Eds.), Bridges Across the Atlantic? Attitudes of Poles, Czechs and Slovaks Towards the United States (pp. 115 – 151). Warsaw, Poland: Institute of Public Affairs.
  • Lanoszka, A. (2020). Poland in a time of geopolitical flux. Contemporary Politics. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2020.1777042.
  • Löfflmann, G. (2019). America First and the Populist Impact on US Foreign Policy. Survival 61 (6), 115 – 138. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2019.1688573.
  • Lührmann, A., et al. (2020). Varieties of Party Identity and Organization (V-Party) Dataset V1. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. https://doi.org/10.23696/vpartydsv1.
  • Marczuk, K. P. (Ed.) (2019). Good Neighbourhood Treaties of Poland: Political, Security and Social Relations. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Moberg, A. (2020). When the Return of the Nation-State Undermines the Rule of Law: Poland, the EU, and Article 7 TEU. In: A. Bakardjieva Engelbrekt, K. Leijon, A. Michalski, L. Oxelheim (Eds.) The European Union and the Return of the Nation State (pp. 59-82). Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-35005-5_3.
  • Moffitt, B. (2020). Populism. Oxford, UK: Polity Press.
  • Mudde, C. & Kaltwasser, C. R. (2017). Populism: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
  • National Security of the Republic of Poland (2014). Retrieved from https://www.bbn.gov.pl/ftp/dok/NSS_RP.pdf.
  • National Security of the Republic of Poland (2020). Retrieved from https://www.bbn.gov.pl/ftp/dokumenty/National_Security_Strategy_of_the_Republic_of_Poland_2020.pdf.
  • Nyyssönen, H. (2018). The East is different, isn’t it? – Poland and Hungary in search of prestige. Journal of Contemporary European Studies 26 (3), 258 – 269. https://doi.org/10.1080/14782804.2018.1498772.
  • Pakulski, J. (Ed.). The Visegrad Countries in Crisis. Warsaw, Poland: Collegium Civitas.
  • Polska Agencja Prasowa (2019, 14 November). PM presents proposed new government line-up. Retrieved from https://www.pap.pl/en/news/news%2C539466%2Cpm-presents-proposed-new-government-line.html.
  • Polskie Radio (2020, 15 December). Polish president congratulates Joe Biden on US election victory, invites him to visit. Retrieved from https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7785/Artykul/2640811,Polish-president-congratulates-Joe-Biden-on-US-election-victory-invites-him-to-visit.
  • Program Prawa i Sprawiedliwości [Program of the Law and Justice] (2014). Retrieved from https://www.pis.torun.pl/download/program-pis-2014/?wpdmdl=2286&refresh=602e564aa53791613649482.
  • Reporters without borders (n.d.). Poland. Retrieved from https://rsf.org/en/poland.
  • Rooduijn, M. (2019). State of the field: How to study populism and adjacent topics? A plea for both more and less focus. European Journal of Political Research 58 (1), 362 – 372, https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12314.
  • Rutland, P. (2016, 27 September). Trump, Putin and Race. Transitions Online. Retreived from https://tol.org/client/article/26344-trump-putin-and-race.html (accessed: 18.02.2021).
  • Sadurski, W. (2019). Poland’s Constitutional Breakdown. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
  • Sata, R. & Karolewski, I. P. (2020). Caesarean politics in Hungary and Poland, East European Politics 36 (2), 206 – 225. https://doi.org/10.1080/21599165.2019.1703694.
  • Schmidt, A. (2016). Friends forever? The Role of the Visegrad Group and European Integration. Politics in Central Europe 12 (3), 113 – 140. https://doi.org/10.1515/pce-2016-0019.
  • Simon, F. (2020, 11 September). Warsaw says ‘committed’ to EU’s climate neutrality goal, 11.09.2020. Retrieved from https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/warsaw-says-committed-to-eus-climate-neutrality-goal/.
  • Stanley, B. & Cześnik, M. (2019). Populism in Poland. In: D. Stockemer (Ed.) Populism Around the World (pp. 67-87). Cham, Switzerland, Springer, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-96758-5_5.
  • Stengel, F.A., MacDonald, D.B. & Nabers, D. (2019). Introduction: Analyzing the Nexus Between Populism and International Relations. In: F. A. Stengel, D.B. MacDonald & D. Nabers (Eds.) Populism and World Politics. Exploring Inter- and Transnational Dimensions (pp. 1 – 22). Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04621-7_1.
  • Szeptycki, A. (2019). Contemporary Relations between Poland and Ukraine. “The Strategic Partnership” and the Limits Thereof. Berlin, Germany: Peter Lang.
  • The Economist (2017, 10 March). Poland fails by 27-1 to oust Donald Tusk as president of the European Council. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/europe/2017/03/10/poland-fails-by-27-1-to-oust-donald-tusk-as-president-of-the-european-council.
  • The Economist (2020, 10 October). Poland’s ruling party may clobber independent media. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/10/10/polands-ruling-party-may-clobber-independent-media.
  • Timbro (2019). Timbro Authoritarian Populism Index, Timbro, Sweden, n.l. Retrieved from https://populismindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/TAP2019C.pdf.
  • Traczyk, A. (2020). Poland’s New Foreign Minister. Orbiting Closer to the Center of Power, DGAP Commentary 25. Retrieved from https://dgap.org/sites/default/files/article_pdfs/DGAP-commentary-2020-25-en.pdf.
  • Varga, M. & Buzogány, A. (2020). The Foreign Policy of Populists in Power: Contesting Liberalism in Poland and Hungary. Geopolitics. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2020.1734564.
  • Verbeek, B. & Zaslove, A. (2018). Populism and Foreign Policy. In C. R. Kaltwasser, P.A. Taggart, P. Ochoa Espejo, P. Ostiguy (Eds.). The Oxford Handbook of Populism. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
  • Wall Street Journal (2007, 11 September). New Europe’s Underachievers. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118945965457622997.
  • Wanat, Z. (2020, 13 October). Poland threatens to veto EU budget over rule of law. Retrieved from https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-threatens-a-budget-veto-over-rule-of-law/.
  • Wehner, L. E., Thies, C. G. (2020). The nexus of populism and foreign policy: The case of Latin America. International Relations. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0047117820944430.
  • Wiejski, P. (2021, 12 February). “Who do I call if I want to reach Poland?” Warsaw’s divided diplomacy is undermining foreign policy. Retrieved from https://notesfrompoland.com/2021/02/12/ministry-of-foreign-mess-how-polands-diplomacy-is-being-undone/.
  • Wojczewski, T. (2020). Trump, Populism, and American Foreign Policy, Foreign Policy Analysis 16 (3), 292–311. https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orz021
  • Zalan, E. (2020, 11 December). EU leaders unblock budget in deal with Hungary and Poland. Retrieved from https://euobserver.com/political/150357.
  • Zbińkowski, G. (2019). The Three Seas Initiative and its Economic and Geopolitical Effect on the European Union and Central and Eastern Europe. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe 22 (2), 105 – 119. Retrieved from http://cejsh.icm.edu.pl/cejsh/element/bwmeta1.element.ojs-doi-10_2478_cer-2019-0015/c/5276-4951.pdf.
  • Zięba, R. (2019). Poland’s Foreign and Security Policy. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30697-7_7.
  • Zielonka, J. (2009). The Return to Europe. In J. Kłoczowski & H. Łaszkiewicz (Eds.), East- Central Europe in European History. Themes & Debates (pp. 474 – 484). Lublin, Poland: Institute of East Central Europe.
  • Zwolski, K. (2017). Poland’s Foreign-Policy Turn. Survival 59 (4), 167 – 182. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2017.1349825.