NÜKLEER ANLAŞMADAN SONRA İRAN-TÜRKİYE İLİŞKİLERİ: BİR KOMPARTMANTALİZASYON ÖRNEK OLAYI
Birçok gözlemcinin beklentisinin aksine Türkiye, İran’ın nükleer programı etrafında uzun süreden beri devam eden anlaşmazlığın siyasi yoldan çözümünü amaçlayan ve P5+1 grubu ülkeleri ile İran arasında Temmuz 2015’te uzlaşmaya varılan nükleer anlaşmaya karşı ‘ihtiyatlı’ bir tutum aldı. Türkiye ve İran arasındaki ilişkiler nükleer anlaşmadan kısa bir süre sonra, muhtemelen jeopolitik kaygılar nedeniyle ciddi şekilde kötüleşti. İki ülke ilişkileri Ankara ve Tahran arasında üst düzey ziyaretlerde görüldüğü gibi kısa sürede normalleşti, fakat görüş ayrılıkları ve jeopolitik kaygılar aşılmadı. Bu makalede İran-Türkiye ilişkilerinde eşzamanlı olarak ortaya çıkan fakat birbirine zıt, birisi çatışma ve rekabet, diğeri işbirliği ve diyalog doğrultusunda etkili olan iki eğilime dikkat çekilmektedir. Bu iki zıt eğilimin eşzamanlı olarak ortaya çıkmasıyla Ankara ile Tahran arasında görünürde hızlı şekilde değişen ilişkileri açıklamak için bu çalışmada ‘kompartmanlaşma’ kavramı önerilmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler:
Türk-İran ilişkileri, nükleer anlaşma, Ortadoğu, Erdoğan, Ruhani, kompartmanlaştırma, Suriye krizi, mezhepçilik
IRAN AND TURKEY RELATIONS AFTER THE NUCLEAR DEAL: A CASE FOR COMPARTMENTALIZATION
Contrary to the expectations of many observers, Turkey adopted a ‘cautious’ stand with regard to the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1, finalized in July 2015, which aimed at a political solution to the long-lasting controversy over Iran’s nuclear program. Relations between Turkey and Iran worsened considerably soon after the nuclear deal, arguably for geopolitical reasons. While the two countries quickly reinstated their relations, as signified by high-level visits between Ankara and Tehran, they have not overcome their differences and geopolitical concerns. This article draws attention to the two simultaneously working but contrasting trends in Iran-Turkey relations: one working for conflict and competition and the other for cooperation and dialogue. In order to explain the seemingly rapid changes in relations between Ankara and Tehran through the simultaneous operation of these two contrasting trends, this study offers the concept of compartmentalization
Keywords:
Turkish-Iranian Relations, Nuclear Deal, Middle East, Erdoğan, Rouhani, Compartmentalization, Syrian Crisis, Sectarianism.,
___
- “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” Vienna, 14 July 2015, available at http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/docs/iran_agreement/iran_ joint-comprehensive-plan-of-action_en.pdf [Last visited 30 May
- “Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Hükümeti ile İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Arasında Yayın- lanan Ortak Bildiri,” T.C. Başbakanlık, 10 June 2014, http://www. basbakanlik.gov.tr/Forms/_Article/pg_Article.aspx?Id=acf5a83e- d621-4619-b9da-a23854a66a38 [Last visited 8 June 2016].
- Ahmadi, Hamid & Fahimeh Ghorbani, “The Impact of Syrian Crisis on Iran-Turkey Relations,” Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs, Vol. 4, No. (2014).
- Aras, Bülent & Emirhan Yorulmazlar, “Turkey and Iran After the Arab Spring: Finding A Middle Ground,” Middle East Policy, Vol. 21, No. (2014).
- Aras, Bülent & Rabia K. Polat, “From Conflict to Cooperation: Desecuriti- zation of Turkey’s Relations with Syria and Iran,” Security Dialogue, Vol. 39, No.5 (2008).
- Ayman, S. Gülden, “Turkey and Iran: Between Friendly Competition and Fierce Rivalry”, Arab Studies Quarterly, Vol. 36, No. 1 (Winter ). Baş, Şafak, “Pragmatism and Rivalry: The Nature of Turkey-Iran Relations”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 3 (2013).
- Bonab, R.G., “Turkey’s Emerging Role as a Mediator on Iran’s Nuclear Activ- ities,” Insight Turkey, Vol. 11, No. 3 (2009).
- Brannen, Samuel, “The Turkey, Iran, Russia Nexus: Evolving Power Dynam- ics in the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central Asia”, Center for Strategic & International Studies, 12 November 2013, http://csis.org/ files/publication/131112_Brannen_TurkeyRussiaIranNexus_Web. pdf [Last visited 8 May 2016].
- Çetinsaya, Gökhan, “Essential Friends and Natural Enemies: The Historic Roots of Turkish Iranian Relations”, Middle East Review of Interna- tional Affairs, Vol. 7, No. 3 (September 2003).
- Elik, Süleyman, Iran-Turkey Relations, 1979-2011: Conceptualising the Dy- namics of Politics, Religion and Security in Middle-Power States, (New York: Routledge, 2013).
- Gürzel, Aylin G. & Eyüp Ersoy, “Turkey and Iran’s nuclear program,” Middle East Policy, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2012).
- Jenkins, Gareth, “Occasional Allies, Enduring Rivals: Turkey’s Relations with Iran,” Central Asia – Caucasus Institute, Silk Road Paper, (May 2012).
- M. Patrick, Stewart, “Learning to Compartmentalize: How to Prevent Big Power Frictions from Becoming Major Global Headaches”, Council on Foreign Relations, 4 June 2014, http://blogs.cfr.org/ patrick/2014/06/04/learning-to-compartmentalize-how-to-pre- vent-big-power-frictions-from-becoming-major-global-headaches/ Last visited 8 May 2016].
- Mccurdy, Daphne, “Turkish-Iranian Relations: When Opposites Attract”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, Vol. 7, No. 2 (2008).
- Meier, Oliver, “European Efforts to Solve the Conflict Over Iran’s Nucle- ar Programme: How has the European Union Performed?”, EU Non-Proliferation Consortium, Non-Proliferation Papers, No. 27, February 2013, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/EUNPC_ no-27.pdf [Last visited 8 June 2016].
- Oktav, Özden Zeynep, “Changing Security Perceptions in Turkish-Iranian Relations,” Perceptions, Vol.9 (2004).
- Olson, Robert W. Turkey-Iran Relations, 1979-2004: Revolution, Ideology
- War, coups and geopolitics, (Costa Mesa, CA; Mazda Pub., 2004).
- Sinkaya, Bayram, “İran’ın Nükleer Programı Karşısında Türkiye’nin Tu- tumu ve Uranyum Takası Mutabakatı,” Ortadoğu Analiz, Vol.2, No.18 (June ). Sinkaya, Bayram, “PM Davutoğlu’s Visit to Tehran: A New Momentum in Turkey-Iran Relations”, ORSAM Foreign Policy Analysis, 7 March 2016, http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/showArticle.aspx?ID=2967 [Last visited 8 May
- Sinkaya, Bayram, “Rationalization of Turkey-Iran Relations: Prospects and Limits”, Insight Turkey, Vol. 14, No. 12 (Spring 2012).
- Sinkaya, Bayram, “Turkey and the Iranian Nuclear Issue: From a Passive Stance to the Actual Contributor to the Peaceful Solution?” ORSAM Foreign Policy Analysis, December 2010 http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/showArticle.as- px?ID=323 [Last visited 8 June 2016].
- Sinkaya, Bayram, “Turkish PM Erdoğan’s Visit to Tehran: A New Milestone in Relations Between Turkey and Iran”, ORSAM Foreign Policy Analysis, 31 January 2014, http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/showArticle.aspx?ID=2586[Last visited 8 May 2016].
- Stein, Aaron, “Turkey and Iran’s Complicated Relationship,” EDAM Non-Proliferation Policy Briefs, no. 3, November 2012.
- Stein, Aaron, “Turkey-Iran Compartmentalize Ties to Sidestep Differ- ences”, World Politics Review, 11 June 2014, http://www.worldpoliticsreview. com/articles/13852/turkey-iran-compartmentalize-ties-to-sidestep-differenc- es [Last visited 8 May 2016].
- Tahiroğlu, Merve & Behnam Ben Taleblu, ‘Turkey and Iran: The Best of Frenemies”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, Vol. 14, No. 1 (Spring 2015).
- Ülgen, Sinan & Mustafa Kibaroğlu, Doruk Ergun, “Ankara Neden İran ile İmzalanan Anlaşmayı Memnuniyetle Karşılamalı,” EDAM Tartışma Kağıtları Serisi, No.3, 15 July 2015.
- Üstün, Kadir, “Turkey’s Iran Policy: Between Diplomacy and Sanctions”, Insight Turkey, Vol. 12, No. 3 (2010).
- Walker, Joshua & Gabriel Mitchell, “Is Turkey’s War on Terror a Conse- quence of the Iran Deal?” War on the Rocks (http://warontherocks.com), 25 August 2015, http://warontherocks.com/2015/08/is-turkeys-war-on-terror- a-consequence-of-the-iran-deal/[Last visited 8 May 2016].
- ISSN: 1309-1557
- Başlangıç: 2009
- Yayıncı: ORTADOĞU ARAŞTIRMALARI DERNEĞİ