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KUZEY SURİYE’DE ‘REKABETÇİ KONTROL’ TEORİSİ

Suriye’de devlet zayıflaması, uzun süredir sessiz bir şekilde devam eden mahrumiyetleri gün ışığına çıkartarak rejimin, ülkenin kuzey-doğusunda güç kaybetmesine sebep oldu. Bu devlet zayıflamasından iki ana devlet-dışı aktör ortaya çıktı: PYD ve IŞİD. İki grup da, ortaya çıktıkları bölgelerde merkezi hükümetin kontrol mekanizmalarını devralarak bir nevi devlet-vari bir idari performans sergilemiş ve bölgelerin günlük idaresini ele almıştır. Devlet-dışı aktörlerin belli bölgelerde nasıl devlet faaliyeti yürüttüğü ve yerel halkın desteğini bu idari performans ile kazandığı konusunda en yeni kavramsallaştırmalardan biri David Kilcullen’ın ‘rekabetçi kontrol teorisi’dir. Bu teoriye göre devletler zayıfladığında hangi devlet-dışı aktör idari altyapıyı oluşturacak şekilde bölge halkının taleplerini ve ihtiyaçlarını karşılarsa, o bölgenin aidiyeti bir süre sonra bu gruba dönük olacaktır. Bu teori hem PYD/YPG hem de IŞİD gibi grupların neden sadece askeri yöntemlerle yenilemeyeceğini de açıklamaktadır
Anahtar Kelimeler:

devlet başarısızlığı, devlet-dışı aktörler, IŞİD, PYD, Suriye

WEAK STATES, STRONG NONSTATE ACTORS: THEORY OF COMPETITIVE CONTROL IN NORTHERN SYRIA

State weakening in Syria unearthed long-dormant processes of disenfranchisement, contributing to the regime’s loss of territory in the north-eastern half of the country. Out of this state weakening, two major armed non-state groups emerged: Democratic Union Party PYD and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria ISIS . Both groups have uprooted the control tools and actors of the central authority, taking on an increasingly state-like dual role of security provision and day-to-day administration. How non-state armed groups emerge in the wake of state weakening is best conceptualized by David Kilcullen, who introduced the concept of ‘theory of competitive control’ to identify how challengers to state authority need to prove their capacity in administration. Kilcullen further argues that when states fail, whichever non-state actor emerges most capable of providing administration will convert the loyalties of the local population over time. This perspective is important to understand why Rojava and ISIS are long-term phenomena and will be impossible to eliminate through military-only methods
Keywords:

State failure, non-state actors, ISIS, PYD, Syria,

PDF

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Ortadoğu Etütleri-Cover
  • ISSN: 1309-1557
  • Başlangıç: 2009
  • Yayıncı: ORTADOĞU ARAŞTIRMALARI DERNEĞİ
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