Kaybolan Fırsatlarla Geçen On Yıl: Beşar Esad Yönetimindeki Suriye’nin Önceki ve Şimdiki Dinamikleri

2012 Kasım ayının ortalarında Doha’da kurulan Suriye Muhalif ve Devrimci Güçler Ulusal Koalisyonu Suriye’deki çatışmaya yeni bir ulusal ve uluslararası boyut kazandırmıştır. 100’den fazla ülkenin bu platformu Suriye halkının tek meşru temsilcisi olarak tanıyor olması Esad rejimine fazladan bir siyasi baskı uygulamaktadır. Cumhurbaşkanı Esad tamamen askeri yollara başvurmayı seçtikten sonra siyasi olarak tüm seçenekleri tükenmiştir. Bu makale, barışçı gösteriler başladığında rejimin başvurduğu “güvenlik refleksi”ne bir açıklama getirmek amacıyla Esad yönetimi altında kaybolan fırsatlarla geçen on yılın analizini sunmaktadır. Makalede Suriye intifadası, Suriye’nin olaylar başladığından bu yana farklı bir yola başvurmasına rağmen siyasi anlamda Arap Baharı bağlamında ele alınmaktadır. Suriye muhalefetinin güçlü bir şekilde bö- lümlenmesi Suriye’ye “özgü” bir durumdur. Muhalefet içindeki temel bölünmeler bu çalışmada ayrıntılı bir şekilde ele alınmaktadır. Son olarak ise mevcut durumda muhtemel görünen beş senaryo sunulmaktadır ve bu senaryoların tamamı mevcut durumun vermiş olduğu izlenim kadar olumsuz bir tablo çizmez.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Suriye, Beşar Esad, Arap Baharı, isyan, muhalefet, Ulusal Koalisyon

A Decade of Lost Chances: Past and Present Dynamics of Bashar al-Asad’s Syria

The forming of the new National Coalition of Revolutionary and Oppositional Forces in Doha in mid-November 2012 added a new domestic and international dimension to the conflict in Syria. The recognition of this platform as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people by more than 100 countries puts additional political pressure on the regime of Bashar al-Asad. The President has run out of political options after he had chosen to act exclusively militarily. This article looks back at the decade of lost chances under Asad in order to find an explanation to the “security reflex” that the regime opted for when the peaceful demonstrations started out. In this article, the Syrian intifada is placed into a political context of the Arab Spring in which it belongs despite the different path that Syria has been taking since then. The strong fragmentation of the Syrian opposition is part of the Syrian “specialty”. The main cleavages are elaborated here. Finally, five scenarios are offered that look possible at the moment of publication, not all of them are as negative as the current situation suggests

Keywords:

Syria, Bashar al-Asad, Arab Spring, revolt, opposition, National Coalition,

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