Devrim Teorileri ve Arap Ayaklanmaları: Ortadoğu’dan Dersler

Son dönemdeki Arap Ayaklanmaları hem bölge çalışmalarında hem de sosyal bilim kuramlarındaki önemli başlıkları yeniden tartışmaya açtı. Tartışmaya açılan konulardan bazıları toplumsal hareketler, orduların rolü, gençliğin siyasallaşması ve sosyal medya ağlar oldu. Bu yeniden düşünme çabaları aynı zamanda devrim kuramlarına da etki edecektir. Medya ve ayaklanmaların aktörlerinden bazıları bu ayaklanmaları en yeni devrimci dalga olarak adlandırmakta çok hızlı davrandılar. Bu makale böyle bir adlandırmanın uygunluğunu incelemektedir. Makale, devrim kuramlarının bize sunduğu analitik araçları da değerlendirerek, bu ayaklanmaların ertesindeki Ortadoğu’nun öğrettiği dersleri dikkate alan üç temel öneride bulunmaktadır. Devrimci durumlar ile sonuçlar arasındaki ayrım, devrimci değişimin farklı çeşitleri arasındaki ayrımlar ve uluslararası belirleyenler ile ülke içindeki belirleyenler arasındaki iliş- ki tartışılmakta ve bu başlıklarda yeniden araştırma tasarımına katkıda bulunacak öneriler sunulmaktadır. Makale bu ayaklanmaları kuramsallaştırma ihtiyacının altını çizmekte ve böyle bir çabanın yeni nesil devrim kuramlarına sağlayacağı katkılara işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Arap Ayaklanmaları, Ortadoğu’da Devrimler, Devrim Kuramları, Devrimci Durumlar, Devrimlerde İç-Dış Siyaset Etkile- şimleri

Theories of Revolutions and Arab Uprisings: The Lessons from the Middle East

The recent Arab Uprisings will lead to significant rethinking of critical issues in the region as well as important topics in social theory. Social movements, the role of militaries, the politicization of the youth, and social media networks are among these issues. These rethinking efforts will also have implications for the theories of revolutions. The media as well as some of the actors involved were quick to label these uprisings as the last contemporary wave of revolutions. This article explores whether the use of this label is appropriate. Evaluating the analytical tools that the theories of revolutions offer us, the article puts forward three main suggestions that follow the lessons from the Middle East in the aftermath of these uprisings. The distinction between revolutionary situations and outcomes, between types of revolutionary change and between international and domestic determinants is discussed and suggestions are made to contribute to a new research agenda. The article underlines the need to theorize these uprisings and points out to the benefits of doing so for the new generation of theories of revolutions

Keywords:

Arab Uprisings, Revolutions in the Middle East, Theories of Revolutions, Revolutionary Situations, International-Domestic Interaction in Revolutions,

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