Climate change and cities: A review on the impacts and policy responses

İklim değişikliği çağımızın en önemli küresel sorunlarından birisidir. İnsan yaşamı ve yerleşmeleri üzerinde çok önemli etkiler yapacağı bilinmekte ve beklenmektedir. Yakın bir zamana kadar iklim değişikliği alanındaki çalışmalar, iklim değişikliğine bağlı etkilerin tespit edilmesi ve küresel ısınma ile iklim değişikliğinin azaltılması (climate change mitigation) üzerine odaklanmaktaydı. Ne var ki, iklim değişikliğinin somut sonuçlarının gözlenmeye başlaması bu alandaki çalışmaların çeşitlenmesine yol açmıştır. Son zamanlarda azaltma (mitigation) amaçlı çalışmalar yanı sıra, iklim değişikliğinin yaratacağı olumsuz sonuçlara karşı önlem alınması ve oluşacak yeni durumlara uyum sağlanması (climate change adaptation) amaçlı çalışmalar da ön plana çıkmaya başlamıştır. Kentler, iklim değişikliğinin azaltılması ve olumsuz etkilerine uyum sağlanması amaçlı çalışmalar bağlamında anahtar role sahiptirler. Öncelikle kentler, sera gazı emisyonlarını arttıran çeşitli işlevleri barındırmaları ve ormansızlaşma gibi arazi kullanım değişikliğine yol açmaları nedeniyle küresel ısınmanın ve iklim değişikliğinin varlık nedenleri arasındadırlar. Ayrıca dünya nüfusunun yarısı ile ekonomik kaynaklarının çok büyük bir bölümü kentlerde yer aldığından, iklim değişikliği, ekonomik ve demografik olarak dünyayı en çok kentler üzerinden etkileyecektir. Bu nedenle, bugün birçok araştırmacı, akademisyen ve politika-yapıcı azaltma (mitigation) ve uyum gösterme (adaptation) çalışmaları kapsamında kentlere özel önem atfetmektedirler. Giderek artan bu öneme rağmen, iklim değişikliğine uyum gösterme ve kentler (climate change adaptation and cities) konusundaki çalışmalar halen oldukça sınırlıdır. İklim politikası ile kentsel politikaların birbirine nasıl entegre edileceği ve kentleri iklim-dostu hale getirmek için nelerin yapılması gerektiği belirsizliğini korumaktadır. Bu alanda göze çarpan bir diğer eksiklik ise; azaltma ve uyum gösterme amaçlı politika seçenekleri ile stratejilere dair sistematik kavramlaştırma ve derleme çalışmalarının (uluslararası kuruluşlar tarafından hazırlatılan hacimli raporlar bir yana bırakılırsa), özellikle kentsel düzey ile ilişkili olarak yeterince üretilmemiş olmasıdır. Bu makalenin amacı, bu eksiklikten hareketle iklim değişikliğinin kentlerdeki olası etkileri ile bu etkileri en aza indirmek ve bunlara uyum göstermek için yapılması gerekenleri sistematik bir biçimde tartışmaktır. Türkiye’de iklim değişikliği ve kentler konusundaki çalışmaların henüz istenen düzeye erişmedikleri de dikkate alındığında, yeni bazı çalışmaların tetiklenmesi de bu makalenin dolaylı hedefleri arasında yer almaktadır.

İklim değişikliği ve kentler: Etkiler ve politika farklılıkları konusunda bir yorum

Climate change is one of the most important challenges of our time. It is likely to bring devastating impacts on human life and settlements. Climate change refers to changes in average climatic conditions of the earth due to the increase in average temperatures of the atmosphere (Figure 1). Although natural processes like solar activity and volcanic eruptions can cause changes in climatic conditions it is accepted that current climate change is caused by anthropogenic processes (Deri and Alam, 2008; IPCC, 2007a). There is a consensus that increased burning of fossil fuels and destruction of natural ecosystems, which were intensified after the industrial revolution (Figure 2), are major drivers of ongoing global warming and climate change (Costello et al., 2009). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explicitly proclaims that human-induced climate change is unequivocal and evident (Adger et al., 2003; IPCC, 2007a). This means, even the full implementation of most effective mitigation measures will not suffice to stop global warming and avoid climate change impacts (Klein et al., 2007). Therefore, along with mitigation actions to keep global warming and climate change at relatively lower levels, adaptation actions are also necessary to reduce vulnerabilities of human systems to climate change (IPCC 2007a). Mitigation actions are required to slow down the process of climate change and avoid further global warming by reducing the ongoing causes of climate change (Condon et al., 2009; Prasad et al., 2009). On the other hand, adaptation actions are vital to address unavoidable consequences of climate change in terms of pre-disaster and post-disaster vulnerabilities (Condon et al., 2009; Satterthwaite et al., 2007). Cities can play crucial roles in tackling climate change by means of mitigation and adaptation actions. This is due to three fundamental reasons. First, cities contribute much to causes of climate change in terms of GHG emissions, land-use change and deforestation. It is estimated that fossil fuel combustion in the world (Dodman and Satterthwaite, 2009). Second, cities accommodate half of the world’s population and most of its crucial economic activities. For instance, urban economic activities account for 55% of GNP in least developed countries, 73% in middle income countries, and 85% in most developed countries (UN-Habitat, 2006). Climate change-related events will disturb the lives of a large part of the world’s population and key economic activities. Conversely, despite being part of the problem, cities can also be an essential part of the solution. Inherent advantages of cities, such as concentration of people, enterprises and infrastructure, are, in fact, opportunities to formulate effective and low-cost solutions. Citywide actions offer greater capacity and economies of scale in comparison to individual actions by households or enterprises (Satterthwaite et al., 2007). Despite its importance, urban context has not been adequately addressed in climate change debates until recently. Agriculture and rural livelihoods were paid more attention in academic literature on mitigation and adaptation (Satterthwaite et al., 2007). Thus, it is not much to say that literature on climate change issues in urban context is an emerging one. However, a range of policy responses in terms of tangible strategies and actions to address climate change-related impacts were discussed and developed by various recent studies (1). Yet a systematic understanding of these policy responses has not been adequately developed. Broad and detailed expert reports aside, brief and urban context-related reviews on climate change are limited. This paper aims to point to this gap and contribute to the emerging literature on climate change adaptation in urban context. Based on the review of major works in the field, this paper first provides an overview of most important impacts of climate change on cities, and then explores and discusses the policy responses, which are necessary for the transition from today’s carbon-emitter and vulnerable cities to future’s low-carbon and resilient cities.

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