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Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Enflasyon İlişkisi

Ülkelerin en önemli makroekonomik hedeflerinden birisi olan ekonomik büyümenin sağlanması için uygulanan politikalar ekonomideki bazı unsurlarda zaman zaman bozulmalara yol açabilmektedir. Bu nedenle ekonomik büyüme ile enflasyon arasında bir ilişki olup olmadığı uygulanacak ekonomi politikaları açısından yol gösterici olacaktır. Bu amaçla çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisi için 2003:Q1-2018:Q1 döneminde ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Yapılan Granger nedensellik testi sonucunda yüzde 5 anlamlılık seviyesinde GSYİH’nın enflasyonun nedeni olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmış ancak enflasyondan GSYİH’ya doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilememiştir. Diğer yandan, yapılan birim kök testi sonucunda GSYİH ve enflasyona ait serilerin düzey değerlerinde durağan olmadıkları ve birinci dereceden farkı alındığında durağan hale geldikleri tespit edilmiştir. Durağan olmayan serilerle yapılan regresyon sonuçlarının sahte regresyona yol açması muhtemel olduğundan dolayı değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme analizi yapılmış ancak herhangi bir eşbütünleşmeye rastlanılmamıştır. Bu da GSYİH ve enflasyon arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olmadığını ve serilerin uzun dönemde birbirinden bağımsız hareket ettiğini ortaya koymuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik Büyüme, Enflasyon, Granger Nedensellik

Relation of Economic Growth and Inflation in Turkey

It is one of the most important macroeconomic objectives of ensuring the country's economic growth. However, these policies can sometimes lead to deterioration in some elements of the economy. For this reason, the relationship between economic growth and inflation is indicative of economic policy. In this respect, the relationship between economic growth and inflation in Turkey is examined for the period 2003:Q1-2018:Q1. As a result of the Granger causality test, it is concluded that GDP is the cause of inflation at a level of 5 percent significance, but a causality relationship from inflation to GDP has not been established. On the other hand, as a result of the unit root test, it is determined that the levels of GDP and inflation series are not stable and become stable when the first difference is taken. Regression results made with non-stationary variables can lead to spurious regression. For this reason, cointegration analysis was performed between the variables, but it has not been observed to any cointegration. This reveals that there is no long-term relationship between GDP and inflation and the series act independently of each other in the long-term.

Keywords:

Economic Growth, Inflation, Granger Causality,

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