Yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak Türkiye'de Covid-19 Pandemisini kapsayan dönemde güven endeksleri üzerine yapılan bir çalışma

Güven indikatörlerinin, en önemli özelliği, tüketim, üretim ve yatırım kararlarının majör belirleyicilerine ilişkin bilgi sağlamasıdır. Bu indikatörler, tüketim, üretim ve yatırım faaliyetlerinin gelecek dönemdeki trendlerine ilişkin sinyaller verdiği için, hanehalkları, işletmeler ve merkez bankaları gibi çeşitli ekonomik birimler, güven indikatörlerini, tahmin ve karar alma mekanizmalarına dahil etmektedir. Bu çerçevede, hanehalkları ve firmaların ekonomik görünüme ilişkin beklentilerini ölçmek amacıyla kullanılan güven endeksleri, makroekonomik indikatörlerdeki değişimleri büyük ölçüde yansıtmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2012:05-2020:09 döneminde, Türkiye için, güven indikatörlerinin trendinin analiz edilmesidir. Analizde, Carrion-i Silvestre ve diğ. (2009) tarafından geliştirilen birimkök testi kullanılarak, tüketici, finansal hizmetler ve reel sektör güven endekslerinin durağanlığı, yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak test edilmektedir. Analiz sonuçları, ilgili dönemde, reel sektör ve finansal hizmetler güven endekslerinin istikrarlı bir trende sahip olduğuna; diğer yandan tüketici güven endeksinin dalgalı bir görünüme sahip olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Analiz aynı zamanda, yapısal kırılma tarihlerini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Güven indikatörleri, Belirsizlik, Yapısal kırılmalar

A study on confidence indexes in Turkey under structural breaks for the period covering the Covid-19 Pandemic

The most important feature of confidence indicators is probably the information they provide about the major determinants of consumption, production, and investment decisions. As they indicate future patterns of consumption, production, and investments, many economic agents including households, businesses, and central banks integrate these indicators into their processes of forecasting and decision-making. In this context, confidence indexes, which are used basically to assess the expectations of households and businesses regarding the economic outlook, have the power to reflect the changes in macroeconomic fundamentals. The key objective of this paper is to analyze the trend of confidence indexes for Turkey from 2012:05 through 2020:09. In this study, we employ the Carrion-i Silvestre et al. (2009) unit root test which accounts for multiple structural breaks to test the stationary of the consumer, financial services, and real sector confidence indexes. We find that the financial and real sector confidence indexes have a stable trend, while the consumer confidence index does not have a consistent pattern in the relevant period. Our analysis also provides information regarding the dates of structural breaks.

Keywords:

Confidence indicators, Uncertainty, Structural breaks,

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