Türkiye’nin Turizm Piyasaları İçin Yakınsama Hipotezinin Testi: Fourier Durağanlık Analizi Bulguları

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin temel turizm piyasaları için Ocak 1996-Aralık 2015 döneminde yakınsama hipotezini test etmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, Fourier fonksiyonu ile geliştirilen, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) testi kullanılmıştır. Bu test bilinmeyen sayıda, formda ve tarihteki yapısal kırılmaların olması durumunda da gücünü kaybetmemektedir. Bulgular serilerin, incelenen 14 ülkeden 6’sı (Belçika, İran, İtalya, Rusya, İngiltere ve Yunanistan) için durağan, 8’i (Bulgaristan, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Almanya, Avusturya, Fransa, Hollanda, İsrail ve Romanya) için ise durağan olmadığını göstermektedir. Tüm sonuçlar, serileri durağan bulunan 6 ülke için yakınsama hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ve böylece bu ülkelerde uygulanacak olan turizm politikalarıyla Türkiye ‘ye gelen turist sayısının arttırılabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yakınsama hipotezi, Fourier KPSS, Turizm

Testing The Convergence Hypothesis for Turkey’s Tourism Markets: Evidence From Fourier Stationary Analysis

Using a dataset covering January-1996 and December-2015 period, this study tests the convergence hypothesis for the major tourism markets of Turkey. In this context, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test developed through the Fourier function is employed. This test does not lose power due to unknown number, form, and locations of structural breaks. Findings show that the series of 6 (Belgium, Iran, Italy, Russia, England, and Greece) out of 14 countries are stationary, while the other 8 countries (Bulgaria, United States, Germany, Austria, France, Netherlands, Israel, and Romania) have nonstationary series. Overall results seem to be supporting the convergence hypothesis for the 6 countries with stationary series revealing that it is possible to increase to number of visitors coming to Turkey from these countries.

Keywords:

Convergence hypothesis, Fourier KPSS, Tourism,

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