Reel Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Üzerindeki Etkisi: Kırılgan Beşli Örneği

Bu çalışmada, kırılgan beşli olarak nitelendirilen ülkelerde dış ticaret, reel döviz kuru ve ticari açıklık (trade openness) arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişki, 2000-2014 dönemine ait panel verileri kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Ampirik analiz için, Panel ARDL yöntemi, Granger nedensellik testi ve varyans ayrıştırma analizi kullanılmıştır. Analizler sonucunda, hem kısa dönemde hem de uzun dönemde dış ticaret ile reel döviz kuru arasında negatif ve istatiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki mevcuttur. Diğer taraftan dış ticaret ile ticari açıklık göstergesi arasında pozitif ve istatiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca, Granger nedensellik testi sonucuna göre ticari açıklıktan dış ticarete doğru tek yönlü nedensellik vardır. Ama reel döviz kurundan dış ticarete doğru bir nedensellik yoktur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Dış Ticaret, Reel Döviz Kuru, Panel ARDL, Kırılgan Beşli

Impact of Real Exchange Rate on International Trade: The Case of Fragile Five

In this study, the short and long-term relationship between international trade, real exchange rate and trade openness in countries that are classified as fragile five is being investigated using panel data for the period 2000-2014. For empirical analysis, panel ARDL method, Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis are used. As a result of analysis, there is a negative and statistically significant relationship between international trade and real exchange rate in both short term and long term. On the other hand, it is concluded that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between international trade and trade openness indicator. In addition, the Granger causality test yield unidirectional causality from trade openness to trade. But there is no a causality from real exchange rate to trade.

Keywords:

Trade, Real Exchange Rate, Panel ARDL, Fragile Five,

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