İhracat ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de ihracat ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedenselliği incelemektir. Bu amaçla 1970-2005 dönemi için, toplam ve ana sektörlere (tarım, madencilik ve sanayi) göre ihracat ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler, eş-bütünleşme ve hata düzeltme-geliştirilmiş Granger nedensellik test teknikleri kullanılarak ekonometrik açıdan incelenmektedir. Analiz sonuçları, Türkiye’de toplam ve sanayi ihracatından ekonomik büyümeye doğru pozitif ve tek yönlü nedensellik bulunduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Yani, hata düzeltme-geliştirilmiş Granger nedensellik testlerinin sonuçları, Türkiye’de toplam ve sanayi ihracatı açısından ihracat yönlü büyüme hipotezinin desteklendiğini göstermektedir. Bununla birlikte, tarım ve madencilik ihracatı ile ekonomik büyüme arasında iki yönlü nedenselliğin bulunduğu görülmektedir.

Causlity Between Exports and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis on Turkey

The purpose of this paper is to investigate causality between exports and economic growth in Turkey. For this purpose, the relationships between total exports, by main sector (agriculture, mining and industry), and economic growth are analyzed econometrically by employing cointegration and error correction-augmented Granger causality test tecniques for the period of 1970-2005. The results indicate that there is a positive and one-directional causality runnig from total and industry exports to economic growth in Turkey. That is, the results of error correction-augmented Granger causality tests support export-led economic growth hypothesis in terms of total and industy exports in Turkey. However, it is observed that bi-directional causality exists between agriculture and mining exports and economic growth.

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