Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, Finansal Gelişme ve Ticari Açıklık: Genişletilmiş ARDL ile Kanıtlar
Türkiye ekonomisi 1980 sonrası dönemde, finansal serbestleşme ve dış dünya ile ekonomik entegrasyon sürecine girmiştir. Bu süreçte ithal ikameci sanayileşme stratejisi yerine ihracata dayalı büyüme modeli tercih edilmiş ve finansal liberalizasyona yönelik düzenlemeler yapılmıştır. Bu dönüşüm sürecinden hareket ederek, bu çalışmada, ekonomi literatüründe de geniş çapta tartışılan finansal gelişme ve ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri Türkiye ekonomisi özelinde incelenmiştir. 1990-2021 dönemi verilerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada, değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin tespit edilmesi amacıyla yakın zamanda geliştirilmiş olan genişletilmiş ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre uzun dönemde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olmadığı, ticari açıklığın ise ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilediği görülmektedir. Kısa dönemde; finansal gelişme ile ekonomik büyüme arasında negatif yönlü ve anlamlı bir ilişki söz konusu iken, ticari açıklığın kısa dönemde ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisi yoktur. Neo-Klasik büyüme modelinin geleneksel üretim fonksiyonunda yer alan diğer değişkenlerin (emek, sermaye, teknolojik gelişme) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi de beklenildiği gibi pozitif ve anlamlıdır. Çalışma, Türkiye’nin ekonomi büyümesinde finansal gelişmenin önemli bir aktör olmadığını, ihracata dayalı büyüme stratejisinin ise ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağladığını göstermiştir. Bu sebeple finansal gelişmeyi içselleştiren ve sürdüren etkili bir ekonomik büyüme stratejisinin oluşturulması gerekmektedir. Ayrıca potansiyel çıktı düzeyine ulaşmada finansal döngünün ve finansal sistem çıktılarının da dikkate alınması politika yapıcılar için önemli olmalıdır.
___
- Adeyeye, P. O., Fapetu, O., Aluko, O. A., & Migiro, S. O. (2015). Does Supply-leading Hypothesis Hold in a Developing Economy? A Nigerian Focus. Procedia Economics and Finance, 30, 30-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01252-6
- Akinci, G. Y., Akinci, M., & Yilmaz, Ö. (2014). Financial development-economic growth nexus: A panel data analysis upon OECD countries. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 33-50.
- Atindéhou, R. B., Gueyie *, J. P., & Amenounve, E. K. (2005). Financial intermediation and economic growth: Evidence from Western Africa. Applied Financial Economics, 15(11), 777-790. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100500108030
- Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombard Street: A description of the money market. HS King&Company. https://books.google.com/books?hl=tr&lr=&id=gJBkAAAAcAAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=Bagehot,+W.+(1873).+Lombard+Street:+A+Description+of+the+Money+Market.+Henry+S.+King.&ots=xwWYH5ZnFm&sig=0K_o5yGkE0tgD_DqpLChlANGK1Q
- Boikos, S., Panagiotidis, T., & Voucharas, G. (2022). Financial development, reforms and growth. Economic Modelling, 108, 105734. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105734
- Caves, R. E. (1974). Money and capital in economic development: RI McKinnon,(The Brookings Institution, Washington, 1973) xii+ 184 pp., $7.50. Journal of International Economics, 4(2), 223-224.
- Cheng, S.-Y. (2012). Substitution or complementary effects between banking and stock markets: Evidence from financial openness in Taiwan. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(3), 508-520.
- Çağlar, A. E. (2022). Türkiye’de çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi hipotezinin araştırılmasında çevresel patentlerin rolü: Genişletilmiş ARDL ile kanıtlar. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 15(4), 913-929. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.1100797
- Ehigiamusoe, K. U., & Lean, H. H. (2018). Finance–Growth Nexus: New Insights from the West African Region. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(11), 2596-2613. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2017.1364623
- Ergül, M., & Soylu, Ö. B. (2022). Türkiye’de Ticari Açıklık ve Sanayide Enerji Tüketimi İlişkisi. Dicle Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 12(24), 34-48.
- Fine, B. (2000). Critical survey. Endogenous growth theory: A critical assessment. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 24(2), 245-265. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/24.2.245
- Gurley, J. G., & Shaw, E. S. (1955). Financial aspects of economic development. The American economic review, 45(4), 515-538.
- Haque, M. I., Faruk, B. U., & Tausif, M. R. (2022). Growth-finance nexus in oil abundant GCC countries of MENA region. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2087646. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2087646
- Herranz, E. (2017). Unit root tests. WIREs Computational Statistics, 9(3), e1396. https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.1396
Jalil, A., & Rauf, A. (2021). Revisiting the link between trade openness and economic growth using panel methods. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30(8), 1168-1187. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2021.1938638
- Jedidia, K. B., Boujelbène, T., & Helali, K. (2014). Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia. Journal of Policy Modeling, 36(5), 883-898.
- Kar, M., Nazlıoğlu, Ş., & Ağır, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis. Economic modelling, 28(1-2), 685-693.
- Kazgan, G. (2012). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Krizler (1929-2009) “Ekonomi Politik” Açısından Bir İrdeleme. İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.
- Kong, Q., Peng, D., Ni, Y., Jiang, X., & Wang, Z. (2021). Trade openness and economic growth quality of China: Empirical analysis using ARDL model. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101488.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.10148
- Kuznets, S. (1985). Economic growth and income inequality. İçinde The gap between rich and poor (ss. 25-37). Routledge. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780429311208-4/economic-growth-income-inequality-simon-kuznets
- Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of economic literature, 35(2), 688-726.
- Lucas JR, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of monetary economics, 22(1), 3-42.
- Manta, A. G., Florea, N. M., Bădîrcea, R. M., Popescu, J., Cîrciumaru, D., & Doran, M. D. (2020). The Nexus between Carbon Emissions, Energy Use, Economic Growth and Financial Development: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries. Sustainability, 12(18), 7747. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12187747
- Mengesha, S. T., & Berde, E. (2023). Financial development and economic growth in Ethiopia: Is there a causal link? Cogent Economics & Finance, 11(2), 2245309. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2245309
- Mohamed Sghaier, I. (2023). Trade openness, financial development and economic growth in North African countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(2), 1729-1740. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2503
- Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
- Nguyen, H. M., Thai-Thuong Le, Q., Ho, C. M., Nguyen, T. C., & Vo, D. H. (2022). Does financial development matter for economic growth in the emerging markets? Borsa Istanbul Review, 22(4), 688-698. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2021.10.004
- Nyasha, S., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2015). Banks, stock market development and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causal linkage. Applied Economics Letters, 22(18), 1480-1485. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2015.1042132
- Odhiambo, N. M., & Nyasha, S. (2022). Financial Development and Economic Growth in Uganda: A Multivariate Causal Linkage. Journal of African Business, 23(2), 361-379. https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916.2020.1838834
- Okuyan, H. A. (2022). The Nexus of Financial Development and Economic Growth Across Developing Economies. South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 17(1), 125-140. https://doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2022-0009
- Panopoulou, E. (2009). Financial variables and euro area growth: A non-parametric causality analysis. Economic Modelling, 26(6), 1414-1419.
- Pata, U. K., & Caglar, A. E. (2021). Investigating the EKC hypothesis with renewable energy consumption, human capital, globalization and trade openness for China: Evidence from augmented ARDL approach with a structural break. Energy, 216, 119220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119220
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
- Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
Rajan, R., & Zingales, L. (1998). Financial development and growth. American economic review, 88(3), 559-586.
- Ramsey, F. P. (1928). A Mathematical Theory of Saving. The Economic Journal, 38(152), 543-559.
Rivera-Batiz, L. A., & Romer, P. M. (1991). International trade with endogenous technological change. European economic review, 35(4), 971-1001.
- Robinson, J. V. (1954). The rate of interest and other essays. (No Title). https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1130000796737982848
- Rodríguez, F., & Rodrik, D. (2000). Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic’s Guide to the Cross-National Evidence. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 15, 261-325. https://doi.org/10.1086/654419
- Romer, P. M. (1994). The Origins of Endogenous Growth. Journal of Economic Perspectiv, 8(1), 3-22.
Sala-i-Martin, X. X., & Barro, R. J. (1995). Technological diffusion, convergence, and growth. Center discussion paper.
- Sam, C. Y., McNown, R., & Goh, S. K. (2019). An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.11.001
- Sarkar, P. (2008). Trade Openness and Growth: Is There Any Link? Journal of Economic Issues, 42(3), 763-785. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2008.11507178
- Schumpeter, J. A. (1912). The Theory of Economic Development.(1934 Edition). Cambridge MA.
Shahbaz, M., Naeem, M., Ahad, M., & Tahir, I. (2018). Is natural resource abundance a stimulus for financial development in the USA? Resources Policy, 55, 223-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.12.006
- Shan, J. Z., Morris, A. G., & Sun, F. (2001). Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Egg‐and‐Chicken Problem? Review of International Economics, 9(3), 443-454. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00291
- Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
- Sotiropoulou, T., Giakoumatos, S., & Georgopoulos, A. (2023). Financial development, economic growth, and income inequality: A Toda-Yamamoto panel causality test. Economics and Business Letters, 12(2), 172-185. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.12.2.2023.172-185
- Swan, T. W. (1956). Economic growth and capital accumulation. Economic Record, 32(2), 334-361. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1956.tb00434.x
- Taddese Bekele, D., & Abebaw Degu, A. (2021). The effect of financial sector development on economic growth of selected sub‐Saharan Africa countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 28(3), 2834-2842. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2566
- Wacziarg, R., & Welch, K. H. (2008). Trade liberalization and growth: New evidence. The World Bank Economic Review, 22(2), 187-231.
- Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (2002). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500102753410372