Ali Demir KESKİNER, Mahmut ÇETİN, Takanori NAGANO

Mapping spatio-temporal tendencies of climate types in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) media: A case study in Şanlıurfa and its environs

Aims: The primary objective of this study was to figure out spatio-temporal tendencies of climate-types in Şanlıurfa town and its environs, located in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) area, through using Erinç Drought Index method. Methods and Results: Data sets consisting of long-term (1965-2018) annual total precipitation as well as average annual maximum temperature series of Şanlıurfa, Birecik, Akçakale, Ceylanpınarı, Siverek and Bozova meteorological stations -distributed unevenly over total surface area of 19 242 km²- were obtained and utilized in order to calculate Erinç Drought Index (EDI) on a yearly basis. EDI time series of each station was divided into three non-overlapping and successive parts or periods, i.e. period-1 (1965-1981), period-2 (1982-1999), period-3 (2000-2018). The best fitting probability distribution models to the EDI series of each period were, in turn, determined by performing a regular frequency analysis procedure by Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness of Fit Test at the 5% significance level. EDI having 50% probability was estimated for the three periods of each station by utilizing probability models determined exclusively for each predetermined period. Afterwards, regular grids with the size of 100 m by 100 m were established over the study area in GIS media. Ordinary-Kriging interpolation technique was employed to estimate index values at the grid points and to generate climate maps over the study area for the three successive periods. Conclusions: Based on the spatio-temporal tendencies map of climate types for 3 time periods, it was concluded that the spatio-temporal climatic characteristics of Şanlurfa province is dominated as “Arid”, “Semiarid” and “Sub-humid“ climate type from south to north, respectively, and areas of severe drought exposure expands northward along to Siverek in all three periods. Significance and Impact of the Study: Although Atatürk, Birecik, and Karkamış Dams tackle to mitigate drought expansion in the northwest, it is unlikely that it would prevent the spread of the future drought drifts because of global warming. It is strongly recommended that spatiotemporal climate change studies should be periodically conducted in tandem with forest management practices for the whole GAP area.

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