Fatemeh Shaker SUREH, Mohammad Taghi SATTARI, Ahmet IRVEM

Estimation of monthly precipitation based on machine learning methods by using meteorological variables

Aims: The aim of this study is to estimate monthly precipitation by support vector regression and the nearest neighbourhood methods using meteorological variables data of Chabahar station. Methods and Results: Monthly precipitation was modelled by using two support vector regression and the nearest neighbourhood methods based on the two proposed input combinations. Conclusions: The results showed that the support vector regression method using normalized polynomial kernel function has higher accuracy and it has lower estimation error than the nearest neighbour method. Significance and Impact of the Study: Precipitation is one of the most important parts of the water cycle and plays an important role in assessing the climatic characteristics of each region. Modelling of monthly precipitation values for a variety of purposes, such as flood and sediment control, runoff, sediment, irrigation planning, and river basin management, is very important. The modelling of precipitation in each region requires the existence of accurately measured historical data such as humidity, temperature, wind speed, etc. Limitations such as insufficient knowledge of precipitation on spatial and temporal scales as well as the complexity of the relationship between precipitation-related climatic parameters make it impossible to estimate precipitation using conventional inaccurate and unreliable methods.

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