DALGACIK DÖNÜŞÜMÜ-ANFIS İLE DALAMAN ÇAYI AKIMININ TAHMİNİ

Bu çalışmada, dalgacık dönüşüm tekniği ile Adaptif Ağ Temelli Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi (ANFIS) bir arada kullanılarak akım tahmin modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Bu amaçla, otoregresif (AR) süreçler ile birleştirilmiş ANFIS modellerinin performansını geliştirmek için dalgacık analizi ile üretilen alt seriler kullanılarak Wavelet-ANFIS modeller geliştirilmiştir. Geliştirilen modeller karşılaştırıldığında, dalgacık analizi ile üretilen girdi veri setlerinin model performansını artırdığı görülmüştür. Sonuç olarak, Wavelet-ANFIS hibrit modellerinin AR-ANFIS modellerinden daha iyi bir tahmin yeteneğine sahip oldukları ve Wavelet-ANFIS hibrit modelinin akım tahmininde başarı ile kullanılabileceği ortaya çıkarılmıştır.

ESTIMATION OF DALAMAN STREAM FLOW BY USING WAVELET-ANFIS

In this study, flow estimation models were formed by using a combination ofDiscrete Wavelet Transform Technique (Wavelet) and Adaptive Network BasedFuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). For this purpose, Wavelet-ANFIS models havebeen developed by using sub-series generated by wavelet analysis for improvingperformance of ANFIS models which is integrated auto regressive process (AR). It isseen that input data sets generated by wavelet analysis improved model performance. Asa result, it is found that Wavelet-ANFIS hybrid models have a better predictivepower than AR-ANFIS models and that the Wavelet-ANFIS hybrid model can be usedsuccessfully in flow estimation.

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