DALGACIK-ADAPTIF AĞ TEMELLI BULANIK ÇIKARIM SISTEMLERI ILE DALAMAN ÇAYI AKIMLARININ MODELLENMESİ ÜZERİNE BİR ÇALIŞMA

Çalışmanın amacı Dalgacık analizi ile Adaptif Ağ Temelli Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemini bir arada kullanarak bir akım tahmin modeli geliştirmektir. Türkiye’nin güneyinde yer alan Dalaman Çayı akımlarının tahmini için pek çok model uygulanmıştır. Bu çalışmalardan biri de Taylan (2008) tarafından geliştirilen eğitim seti otoregresif süreçlerle üretilen sentetik serilerle genişletilmiş AR-ANFIS modellerdir. Bu çalışmada, ANFIS modellerinin eğitim seti dalgacık analizi kullanılarak üretilen alt serilerle genişletilerek W-ANFIS modeller geliştirilmiştir. Girdi veri setlerinin genişletilmesinin model performansını artırdığı görülmüştür. Geliştirilen modeller karşılaştırıldığında, W-ANFIS hibrit modellerinin AR-ANFIS modellerinden daha iyi bir tahmin yeteniğine sahip oldukları gösterilmiştir. Sonuç olarak W-ANFIS hibrit modeli akım tahmininde başarı ile kullanılabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Dalaman Çayı, Dalgacık Analizi, Adaptif Ağ Temelli Bulanık Çıkarım Sistemi

AN INVESTIGATION ON MODELING OF DALAMAN STREAM FLOWS BY USING WAVE-ANFIS

The object of the study is to investigate a flow estimation model by using a combination of Wavelet Transform Technique (W) and Adaptive Neural Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Many models has been applied in recent years for the prediction of Dalaman Stream flow in the south of Turkey. One of these studies was AR-ANFIS models which developed by Taylan (2008), its training data set was extended with synthetic series produced by autoregressive processes. In this study, W-ANFIS models were developed with sub-series generated by wavelet analysis by using extended training set of ANFIS models. It is seen that increasing the number of input data in training increases model performance. Compared with the developed models, it has been shown that the W-ANFIS hybrid models have a better predictive power than the AR-ANFIS models. Consequently, the W-ANFIS hybrid model could be used successfully in predicting of flow.

Keywords:

Dalaman Stream, Wavelet, ANFIS,

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