Kayseri Kenti için Olasılıksal Sismik Tehlikenin Değerlendirilmesi

Bu araştırmada Kayseri kentinin güncel bir sismik tehlike analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda, 1900'den 2022'e kadar olan sığ kabuk depremlerini içeren ve moment büyüklük ölçeğine dayalı bir deprem kataloğu oluşturulmuştur. Sismik kaynaklar, aktif fay zonları dikkate alınarak homojen alansal kaynak zonları olarak tanımlanmıştır. Her bir sismik kaynak için deprem tehlike parametreleri olarak Gutenberg-Richter parametreleri, Kijko-Smit maksimum olabi-lirlik tahmini yöntemi ile belirlenmiştir. Kayseri kenti için uygun yer hareketi tahmin denklemlerini bulmak için 17 aday denklem, ortalama log-olabilirlik değerleri kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Her bir sismik kaynağın maksimum deprem büyüklüğü, bölgesel kırılma karakteristiğine ve Kijko-Sellevoll yöntemlerine göre hesaplanmıştır. Kayseri kenti için Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemi kullanılarak anakaya seviyesinde Deprem Düzeyi 1 ve Deprem Düzeyi 2 için pik yer ivmesi, 0.2 s ve 1 s periyotlu spektral ivme değerleri hesaplanarak sismik tehlike haritaları geliştirilmiştir. Ayrıca bu araştırma kapsamında, Kayseri kent merkezi için sismik tehlike eğrileri ve üniform tehlike spektrumları oluşturulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kayseri, maksimum deprem büyüklüğü, pik yer ivmesi, sismik tehlike analizi, yer hareketi tahmin denklemi

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Kayseri City

In this research, a current seismic hazard analysis for the city of Kayseri was carried out. Accordingly, an earthquake catalog based on the moment magnitude scale was created, which includes shallow crustal earthquakes from 1900 to 2022. Seismic sources are defined as homogeneous areal source zones, taking into account active fault zones. Gutenberg-Richter parameters as earthquake hazard parameters for each seismic source were evaluated using the Kijko-Smit maximum likelihood estimation method. To find the appropriate ground motion prediction equations for the city of Kayseri, 17 candidate equations were evaluated using mean log-likelihood values. The maximum earthquake magnitude of each seismic source was calculated according to regional rupture characteristics and Kijko-Sellevoll methods. Seismic hazard maps for Kayseri city were developed for peak ground acceleration, spectral acceleration with periods of 0.2 and 1 sec and for bedrock with hazard levels of 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years by using Geographical Information System software. In addition, within the scope of this research, seismic hazard curves and uniform hazard spectrum were created for the city center of Kayseri.

Keywords:

Kayseri, maximum earthquake magnitude, peak ground acceleration, seismic hazard analysis, ground motion prediction equation,

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