Mimari Mirasın Sel Riski Analizi İçin Bir Model Önerisi: Edirne II. Bayezid Külliyesi Sel Riski Analizi

İklim değişikliği projeksiyonlarına göre, gelecekte Türkiye’nin de içerisinde bulunduğu iklim kuşağında, şiddetli yağış ve ani selde artış olacaktır. Sel, mimari mirasta çok ciddi hasarlara neden olmaktadır. Önleyici korumada riskler ortaya çıkmadan önce alınan önlemler, riskleri ortadan kaldırmasa da hasarı azaltmada etkilidir. Riskler bilinmeden risklere karşı hazırlıklı olmak mümkün değildir. İklim değişikliği etkisiyle artacağı öngörülen sellere karşı mimari mirasın da hazırlıklı hale getirilmesi için sel riskinin bilinmesi çok önemlidir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmada mimari mirasın sel riskini analiz etmeye yönelik bir model geliştirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda mimari mirasın sel kaynaklı hasarları araştırılmış; hasarı artıran faktörlerin belirlenmesi için yerinde tespit, gözlem ve incelemeler yapılmış; tarihi sellere yönelik arşiv ve literatür taranmıştır. Elde edilen verilerden sel kaynaklı kuvvetler ve etkiler; bu kuvvet ve etkilerin mimari mirasta oluşturduğu hasar türleri, yapıda hasarların oluştuğu bölgeler ve olası hasar riskleri belirlenmiştir. Hasar düzeyini etkileyen faktörler tanımlanarak sel risk parametrelerine dönüştürülmüş ve her risk parametresi kendi içerisinde risk oluşturma düzeyine göre derecelendirilmiştir. Sel riskli alan katsayısının belirlenmesi için örneklem alanının sel risk haritaları ile geçmiş sel yayılım alanları ArcGIS programında çakıştırılmış ve sel riskli alan sınırları işaretlenmiştir. Sel risk parametreleri ve sel riskli alan katsayısı Excel programında hesaplama tablosu haline getirilmiş ve tabloya yapı künyesi kısmı eklenerek “Mimari Miras Sel Riski Analiz Formu” oluşturulmuş ve örneklem alan yapılarının bilgileri bu formlara yerinde gözlemle işlenmiştir. Geliştirilen model MISRAM, son yıllarda ani ve şiddetli yağışların artış gösterdiği Edirne’de bulunan Geçici Dünya Miras listesinde yer alan II. Bayezid Külliyesi yapılarına uygulanarak külliye yapılarının sel riski analiz edilmiş ve çalışma alanının sel riski haritası oluşturulmuştur.

A Model Proposal for the Flood Risk Analysis of the Architectural Heritage: Edirne Bayezid II Complex Flood Risk Analysis

According to the climate change projections, there will be an increase in torrential rains and related floods. In parallel with this, the risk of flood damage to the architectural heritage will increase in the future. Floods cause serious damage to the architectural heritage. Since flood risk analyses are generally made basin-based, studies on flood risks of cities are still inadequate. Therefore, flood risks arising from the architectural heritage’s own characteristics and its current situations are not known. Not knowing which architectural heritage poses the flood risk and its potential losses increase the damage. In preventive preservation, the measures taken before the risks occur are effective in reducing the damage, even if they do not eliminate the risks completely. It is necessary to know the flood risk in order to make the architectural heritage be prepared against floods that are predicted to increase with the effect of climate change. This study is aimed to develop a model for analysing the flood risk of architectural heritage. With the Architectural Heritage Flood Risk Analysis Model (MİSRAM) developed in line with this purpose, the vulnerability of any architectural heritage can be calculated with the parameter scores developed over the building’s own characteristics and current state. The development and implementation of the model were carried out in 4 stages. In the first stage: flood damage in the architectural heritage has been investigated. On-site detection, observation, and investigations were made to determine the factors that increase the damage. Flood-induced forces and effects from the data obtained. The types of damage caused by these forces and effects in the architectural heritage, the areas where the damage occurred in the building and the possible damage risks were determined. In the second stage: the factors affecting the damage level were defined and transformed into flood risk parameters. In the third stage: the flood risk parameters and the coefficient of flood risk area were made into a calculation table in an Excel program. The analyse form was created by adding the building identification section to the created calculation sheet. In the fourth stage: the risk analysis forms were filled in on-site. As a result of the researches made in the scope of the study’s problem, the findings below have been reached: • Climate change causes an increase in sudden and heavy rains and accordingly flash floods, and these effects will continue to increase in the future. • Architectural heritage located in the region with the same flood risk coefficient may have different flood risk levels depending on different parameters. Therefore, the flood risk of the architectural heritage cannot be calculated only through the flood risk of the region where it is located, a heritage-specific risk analysis model should be developed and in this model, the heritage’s own characteristics and current situation should be taken into account. • Factors that increase flood damage in architectural heritage should be identified and included in the calculation in risk analysis. • There has been an increase in the number of floods in the province of Edirne after the 2000s. The developed model proposal MISRAM was applied to the buildings of Bayezid II Complex, and the flood risk levels of the buildings were determined. Determining the flood risk level in the flood management planning of the architectural heritage is the first step and constitutes important data for decision-makers. In further studies, it is recommended to develop protection measures and interventions that will not adversely affect the heritage values for the architectural heritage whose flood risk level is determined, and to analyse the flood risk of the cultural heritage other than the architectural heritage. The flood risk of the architectural heritage can be analysed and appropriate flood prevention and response decisions can be made via applying MISRAM. It can be integrated into disaster management plans of local governments, and it may constitute the first step in reducing architectural heritage damages and preventing losses in flood disasters. MISRAM is a method that can be used both as a resource for creating architectural heritage flood risk maps and for decision-makers to take appropriate measures and intervention decisions.

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