Sovyetler Sonrası Bölgede Uluslararası Hiyerarşi ve Bölgesel Güvenlik: Ukrayna ve Gürcistan’daki Krizler

Soğuk Savaşın bitiminden yirmi beş yıl geçmesine rağmen, eski Sovyet ülkeleri, işgal ve askeri çatışmalar da dahil olmak üzere birçok iç ve dış problemle uğraşmaktadır. Rusya Federasyonu'nun 1996 öncesi dönemde eski Sovyet coğrafyasında ortaya çıkan askeri çatışmalar ve iç savaşlar karşısında izlediği müdahaleci politika güvenliğe katkıda bulunurken; 2008 ve 2013'de meydana gelen krizlere müdahalesi sorunların daha da derinleşmesine sebep olmuştur. Bu çalışma Rusya Federasyonu'nun eski Sovyetler Birliği ülkelerindeki çatışmalar karşısında birbirinden farklı politikalar izlemesinin nedenlerini konu almaktadır. Bu soru, Rusya'nın Gürcistan ve Ukrayna ile olan hiyerarşik ilişkilerinin oluşum ve değişim süreci incelenerek cevaplandırılmaktadır. Bu üç devlet arasında hiyerarşik ilişkilerin oluşum sürecinin incelenmesi için askeri alanda (askeri güçlerin konuşlandırılması, egemen güç tarafından kurulan bir ittifaka üyelik, başka bir ittifaka üyelik hedefinin olması, askeri teçhizat temini, askeri yardım alınması) ve ekonomik ilişkilerde (dış ticarette egemen devlete bağımlılık, egemen devlet tarafından kurulan ekonomik birliğe üye olma, ekonomik yardım alınması ve egemen devletin para birimi karşısında izlenen para politikaları) olmak üzere yirmi iki yıllık süreçte on gösterge toplamda iki yüz yirmi göstergeye bakılmıştır. Bu göstergelere göre hiyerarşik ilişkiler üç gruba ayrılmıştır: yüksek dereceli hiyerarşi, düşük dereceli hiyerarşi ve anarşik hiyerarşi. Ukrayna ve Gürcistan'da ilk iki dönemde başa gelen liderler ve izledikleri politikalar ve Rusya Federasyonu'nun bu politikalara tepkisiyle farklı hiyerarşik ilişkiler arasındaki bağlantı ortaya konmuştur. Bu çalışmada, Rusya'nın bu iki ülke ile olan hiyerarşik ilişkilerinin değişmesi, öncellikle Rusya'nın bu iki devlet karşında, karşılıklı kabul görmüş egemen pozisyonunun ve ikinci olarak da hakim devlet ile ona bağımlı ülkeler arasındaki olması gereken sosyal sözleşmenin sorgulanması bu ülkelerdeki iç savaşlarda Rusya'nın farklı politikalar izlemesinin temel nedeni olduğu iddia edilmektedir. Rusya'nın bu ülkelere yaptığı müdahalelerden sonra değişik bir düzenleyici ilke- anarşik hiyerarşi ile farklı bir bölgesel düzen oluşmuştur. Bu düzen içerisinde Rusya bu ülkelerin güvenliğini ikili yönde etkilemektedir: Kendine bağlı yeni ortaklarının güvenliklerini garanti altına alırken, aynı zamanda eski bağımlı ülkelerin güvenliklerini tehdit etmektedir. Böylece bu çalışma ile egemen bir ülkenin etki alanını barındıran bölgelerdeki güvenlik dinamikleri tartışılmış; hakim ve egemen devletin bölgesel güvenliğini arttıran ya da zarar veren politikalar izleyip izleyemeyeceğini belirlemede, egemen devletin kendine bağlı devletler karşısındaki konumu (egemen devlet ile kendine bağlı devletler arasındaki hiyerarşik ilişkilerin derecesi ve yoğunluğu), siyasal seçkinlerindeki değişiklikler de dahil olmak üzere bağımlı ülkelerdeki iç gelişmeler ve egemen devlete karşı diğer büyük güçlerin konumları olmak üzere birbiriyle ilişkili üç faktörün rol oynadığı sonucuna varılmıştır

International Hierarchy and Regional Security in the Post-Soviet Region: Crises in Ukraine and Georgia

Ever since the end of the Cold War, the post-Soviet countries have been dealing with internal and external problems, including territorial annexation and military confrontation. The Russian Federation’s involvement in military confrontations took place prior to 1996 in the Region contributed to security, whereas in the latest two crises (in 2008 and in 2013), Russia’s policy led to their escalation. Why the Russian Federation played two such extremely different roles in military conflicts occurring in the post-Soviet Region is the basic question posed by the present essay. This question will be examined trough explaining how the processes of formation and transformation of hierarchic relations, between the Russian Federation and Georgia and Ukraine, have taken place. In order to find out this process: set of indicators both in security relations (deployment of military forces, membership in an alliance established by the dominant power, having another alliance membership goal, military-equipment supply, military aid) and economic relations (trade dependence, membership into an economic union, economic aid and monetary policy autonomy) are used. According to these indicators: hierarchic relations are categorized into three groups: high degree of hierarchy, low degree of hierarchy and anarchical hierarchy. The link between the hierarchical relations and the policies of the leaders of Georgia and Ukraine and the Russian Federation in the first two periods is revealed. It is argued that transformation of the hierarchic relations and questioning firstly the mutual understanding of Russian position vis-a-vis these two countries and secondly the social contract, which should take place between a dominant state and her sets of subordinates, have affected Russian Federation’s different decisions on her policy regarding civil conflicts in Georgia and Ukraine. After her intervention into Georgia and Ukraine, a different regional order with a unique ordering principle – anarchical hierarchy has emerged and within this order Russia has two-fold effects on security of the post-Soviet region: providing security for her new subordinate partners while simultaneously terminating security for its former subordinates. By this analysis, security dynamics in region in which a sphere of influence of a dominant state exists is discussed and it is concluded that three interrelated factors play role in determining whether the dominant state will pursue policies that enhance or harm regional security: the position of the dominant state vis-a-vis its subordinate states (extent and intense of hierarchic relations between the dominant and subordinates states), domestic developments in the subordinate countries, including changes in its political elites and finally the position of other great powers vis-a-vis the dominant state

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