Dış Borç Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Uygulaması

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye ekonomisinde dış borçların ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri 1970-2016 dönemi için güncel zaman serisi teknikleriyle araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada serilerin durağanlığı ADF ve PP birim kök testleriyle incelenmiş ve serilerin farklı derecelerde durağan oldukları görülmüştür. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı Sınır Testi yöntemiyle incelenmiş ve dış borçlanma ile ekonomik büyümenin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettikleri belirlenmiştir. ARDL yöntemiyle gerçekleştirilen uzun dönem analizinde Türkiye’de milli geliri; sabit sermaye stokundaki %1’lik artışın ortalama %0.31, işgücündeki %1 oranındaki artışın %0.27, dış borç stokundaki %1’lik artışın %0.13 ve beşeri sermayedeki %1 oranındaki artışın %0.46 oranında artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Modelin hata düzeltme mekanizması çalışmaktadır ve elde edilen bulgular güvenilirdir. Seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkileri TodaYamamoto nedensellik testiyle incelenmiş ve işgücü ve dış borçlardan ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkilerinin var olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bu testte ayrıca; işgücünden sabit sermaye stoku ve beşeri sermayeye ve dış borç stokundan beşeri sermayeye doğru da tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri bulunmuştur.

Relationship between Economic Growth External Debt: Application to Turkey

In this study, the effects of foreign debt on economic growth in Turkey’s economy are investigated with contemporary time-series techniques for 1970-2016 periods. In the study, the stationarity of the series is examined by ADF and PP unit root tests and the series were found to be stationary at different levels. The existence of cointegration relationship between the series is examined by the Bounds Testing method and it is determined that external debt and economic growth move together in the long run. In the long-run analysis carried out by ARDL method, it is found that 1% increase in fixed capital stock, labor force, external debt stock and human capital enhance national income by 0.31, 0.27, 0.13 and 0.46%, respectively. Error correction mechanism of the model operates, that is, the outcomes are reliable. Causality relationships between the series are examined by TodaYamamoto causality test and it is found that one-way causality relationships exist from labor and external debt to economic growth. Also in this test; one-way causality relationships are found from the labor force to the fixed capital stock and human capital and from the external debt stock to the human capital.

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