Maskeli Örümcek Kuşunun (Lanius nubicus, Licthenstein 1823) İklim Değişimi Etkisi Altındaki Dağılımı

Biyolojik çeşitliliğin sürdürülebilirliği için en ciddi tehdit iklim değişikliğidir. İklim değişikliğinin ekolojik sonuçlarını şimdiden tahmin etmenin en iyi yolu tür dağılım modellemeleridir. Bu çalışmada Maskeli örümcek kuşunun (Lanius nubicus) iklim değişimi etkisi altındaki dağılımı modellenmiştir. Yeni nesil iklim değişimi senaryoları olan SSPs (sosyo ekonomik yollar) senaryoları kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre model eğitim verisi AUC değeri 0.899 ve test verisi AUC değeri 0.980 bulunmuştur. Maskeli örümcek kuşunun dağılımını sınırlayan bioiklim değişkenlerinin Bio19, Bio8, Bio12, Bio7 olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Yüzyılın sonuna doğru Kuzey Afrika'da ve Basra Körfezi'nde habitat kayıpları olacağı öngörülmüştür. Anadolu’da bu tür için uygun habitatların artışı dikkat çekicidir. Kıbrıs’ da ise kötümser senaryo etkisi altında habitat kayıpları öngörülmüştür. Diğer bir sonuç ise en kötümser iklim senaryosuna göre Maskeli örümcek kuşu (Lanius nubicus) dağılımının içinde kalan Doğu Akdeniz Havzasının 2100 yılına kadar uygun iklim koşullarını desteklemeye devam edeceği öngörülmüştür. Önemli bir refüj olan bu alanın paleoklimatolojik olaylar sırasında olduğu gibi, gelecekte iklim değişikliği sırasında aynı görevi göreceği öngörülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

MaxEnt, Sosyo-ekonomik rotalar, Tür dağılım modeli, Refüj

Distribution of Masked Shrike (Lanius nubicus, Licthenstein 1823) Under The İnfluence of Climate Change

The most serious threat to the sustainability of biological diversity is climate change. The best way to predict the ecological consequences of climate change now is species distribution modeling. In this study, the distribution of the Masked Shrike (Lanius nubicus) under the effect of climate change is modeled. SSPs (socio-economic pathways) scenarios, which are new generation climate change scenarios, have been used. According to the results, the model training data AUC value was 0.899 and the test data AUC value was 0.980. Bioclimate variables limiting the distribution of the masked shrike were determined to be Bio19, Bio8, Bio12, Bio7. It is predicted that there will be habitat losses in North Africa and the Persian Gulf towards the end of the century. The increase in habitats suitable for this species in Anatolia is remarkable. In Cyprus, habitat losses are predicted under the effect of pessimistic scenario. Another result is that according to the most pessimistic climate scenario, it is predicted that the Eastern Mediterranean Basin, which is within the Masked Shrike (Lanius nubicus) distribution, will continue to support suitable climatic conditions until 2100. It is predicted that this area, which is an important refuge, will serve the same task during climate change in the future, as during paleoclimatological events.

Keywords:

MaxEnt, Socio-economic pathways, species disttribution model, refuge,

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