Bir finansal kriz türü olarak SS krizi ve 1980 sonrasında SS krizi tecrübeleri
SS krizi net uluslar arası sermaye girişinde ve eşanlı olarak cari açıkta ani, şiddetli bir düşme meydana gelmesi, bunun da reel sektörde hammadde, enerji, aramal, sermaye malları tedariki açısından ithalata bağımlılığı yüksek endüstrilerde arz (üretim) şokları doğurarak ciddi bir ekonomik daralmaya götürmesidir. SS krizinin vuku bulmasında kilit rolü “uluslar arası sermaye hareketleri” oynamaktadır. Bu kriz türü hem önemli miktarda uluslar arası sermaye çeken hem de hammadde, enerji, sermaye malları tedarikinde reel sektörünün ithalata bağımlılığı kuvvetli olan ülkelerde meydana gelebilir. SS krizleri çoğunlukla bir para veya bankacılık krizi eşliğinde tecrübe edilmektedir. Bu kriz türünü kavramak bakımından SS fenomeni ile SS krizi kavramının farklı olduklarına dikkat edilmelidir. SS fenomeni uluslar arası sermaye girişinde ve cari açıkta eşanlı olarak şiddetli daralma meydana gelmesidir. SS krizi ise sözkonusu fenomenin ithalat darboğazları üzerinden arz (üretim) şokları doğurup büyük bir ekonomik daralmaya yol açarak bir krize dönüşmesidir. SS krizlerinin anahtar unsurları; uluslararası sermaye girişinde ve eşanlı olarak cari açıkta şiddetli düşme, reel sektörde arz (üretim) şoku ve büyük bir ekonomik daralma, aktif piyasası fiyat çöküşü, reel döviz kurunda çöküş, ticaret dışı mal fiyatlarının ticarete konu mal fiyatlarına oranında sert düşüş şeklinde sıralanabilir. Çalışmamızda 1980 sonrası Türkiye ekonomisinde SS kriz tecrübeleri üzerine odaklanılmıştır. Sırasıyla genel olarak SS krizi, SS krizinin anahtar unsurları, SS krizinin amprik olarak tanımlanması, Türkiye ekonomisinde SS krizi tecrübeleri, SS krizi mahiyetinde olmayan bazı kriz tecrübeleri, SS fenomeni içermeyen bir finansal istikrarsızlık tecrübesi ele alınmıştır. Sonuç kısmında ulaşılan bazı amprik sonuçlara yer verilmiştir. Gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde müşahede edilen kimi SS krizi tecrübelerine dair grafikler Ek’e konulmuştur. Ülkemizde 1980 sonrasında tecrübe edilen 1994, 2001 vakaları amprik olarak SS krizi şeklinde tanımlanmıştır. 1994 krizi bir para krizi olmakla beraber aynı zamanda SS krizi mahiyetindedir. 2001 krizi bir ikiz para ve bankacılık krizi tecrübesi olmakla beraber aynı zamanda SS krizi mahiyetindedir. 1988, 1991 para krizleri SS fenomenini içermemektedirler, dolayısıyla SS krizi mahiyetinde değildirler. 1984 finansal istikrarsızlık vakası hem krize dönüşmemiştir, hem de SS fenomeni içermemektedir.
SS crisis as a financial crisis variety and SS crisis experiences since 1980
SS crisis is the fact that a sharp, sudden decline in the net international private Capital Inflow (KI) and simultaneously Current Account Deficit (CAD),that causes to a production (supply) shock in the industry in real sector which is highly connected to imports (M) in respect to provide energy, raw material, mediate goods, capital goods, and causes finally a severe economic contraction. The international capital movements play the key role in the occurrence of SS crisis. This crisis type may happen in a country which both attracts international serious capital and its real sector is strongly dependent on imports (M) in respect to provide raw material, energy, mediate goods, and capital goods. SS crises are usually experienced with a currency or banking crisis. It is required as regard understanding SS crisis to take care on that the conceptions of “SS crisis” and “SS phenomenon” are different. SS phenomenon is that a severe reduction happens in international capital inflow (KI) and simultaneously in Current Account Deficit (CAD). In an other state, SS phenomenon is a sharp reversal in both international capital inflow and simultaneously current account deficit. However SS crisis is that this phenomenon changes to a crisis by bearing supply (production) shocks in the industries that is strongly connected to distruptions (bottle-necks) of imports and by leading to a serious economic contraction. The key fundaments of the Sudden Stopps (SS) crisis can be ordered as those; a decline in the international capital inflow and simultaneously in Current Account Deficit, a graveshock of supply (production) in the real sector and finally a great economic contraction, the asset market price’s crash, the collapse in the real currency rate, a sharp decline in the ratio of the prices of non-tradeble goods to the price of tradeble goods. In our papper it was foccused on the SS crisis’s experiences in Turkey since 1980 year. It were dealt with orderly those: SS crisis as general, the key factors of SS crisis, the defining amprically of SS crisis, SS crisis’ experiences in Turkey’s economy, some experiences whose nature is no SS crisis, some financial instabilities that doesn’t contain SS penomenon. In the Conclusion’s section there are some amprical results arrived. The graphes, about some SS crisis’ experiences in the developping countries, were placed in the Addition. 1994, and 2001 cases experienced in our country were defined as SS crisis amprically. 1994 crisis is essentially a currency crisis but also it is a SS crisis as nature. 2001 crisis is essentially a twin currency and banking crisis but also it is a SS crisis as the nature. 1988, and 1991 currency crises don’t contain a SS phenomenon, so they aren’t SS crises as theire natures. 1984 financial instability’s case neither changes to a crisis and nor contains a SS phenomenon.
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- ISSN: 1304-0235
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