Nazım EKREN, Mefule FINDIKÇI, Kübra BİLDİK

MAKROEKONOMİK PERFORMANSIN KİŞİ BAŞINA DÜŞEN GÖSTERGELERLE ALTERNATİF ANALİZİ

Bu çalışmanın amacı, makroekonomik yönetim süreçlerinin değerlendirilmesine insan odaklı yaklaşımı dikkate alan alternatif bir performans göstergeler seti önermektir. Çalışmada öncelikle dış borç stokunun ve gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumunun GSYH içindeki payı, kişi başına düşen dış borç stoku, kişi başına düşen gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumunun konjonktür yapısıyla GSYH’nin konjonktür yapısının uyumlulukları incelenmiştir. 1989-2019 döneminde HP- Filter yöntemiyle yapılan inceleme sonucunda kişi başına düşen şeklindeki verilerin GSYH konjonktür yapısıyla daha uyumlu sonuçlar verdiği belirlenmiştir. Çalışmanın ikinci aşamasında, kişi başına düşen GSYH, dış borç stoku ve gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu ilişkisi ARDL modeli kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda GSYH ile dış borç stoku arasında uzun dönemli denge ilişkisinin varlığı belirlenirken, gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumuyla uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığı kanıtlanamamıştır. Ancak oluşturulan model gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumuyla GSYH arasındaki pozitif ilişkiyi doğrulamıştır. Çalışmanın son bölümünde Türkiye’nin makroekonomik performansı kişi başına düşen GSYH, dış borç stoku ve gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu verileri ışığında değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Kişi Başı GSYH, Kamu İç Borcu, Gayrisafi Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu, Dış Borç, ARDL

ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE WITH "PER CAPITA" INDICATORS

The purpose of this study is to propose an alternative set of performance indicators that consider the human-oriented approach in evaluating macroeconomic management processes. Firstly, the compatibility of the conjuncture structure between external debt stock to GDP, gross fixed capital formation to GDP, external debt stock per capita, gross fixed capital formation per capita and GDP has been examined. Using the HP-Filter method for the period of 1989-2019, it was determined the data calculated as per capita gave more consistent results with the GDP conjuncture. Secondly, the relationship between GDP per capita, external debt stock and gross fixed capital formation was analyzed using the ARDL. Consequently, the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and the external debt stock was determined, while the existence of gross fixed capital formation and a long-term relationship could not be proven. The new model confirmed the positive relationship between gross fixed capital formation and GDP. Finally, Turkey's macroeconomic performance has evaluated in terms of GDP per capita, external debt and gross fixed capital formation data.

Keywords:

GDP Per Capita, Public Domestic Debt, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, External Debt, ARDL,

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