Saddam Sonrası İran’ın Yeni Irak Politikası:Sosyolojik Dinamiklerden Politik Gerçeklere

Tahran ile Bağdat arasındaki ilişkiler Baas Partisi'nin 1968'deki darbesinden 2003'de ABD’nin Irak işgaline kadar, hiçbir zaman iyi komşuluğa dayanmadığı gibi normal de olmamıştır. Dolayısıyla İran-Irak ilişkilerinin seyri açısından Saddam Hüseyin’in devrilmesi dönüm noktalarından biri olarak kabul edilebilir. Zira 2003 yılında ABD'nin Irak'ı işgaliyle İran, Saddam gibi bir düşmanından kurtulurken, Irak ise kısa süre içinde İran’ın nufuz alanı haline gelmiştir. Ancak bununla birlikte Irak’taki ABD varlığı İran için ciddi güvenlik endişelerine de neden olmuştur. Bu dönemde İran güvenlik kaygılarıyla nükleer programına hız verirken, Irak'taki ABD işgalinin sona ermesi ve askerlerinin çekilmesi önceliğini de korumuştur. Saddam sonrası Irak’ta oluşan yeni siyasi ortam, İran için fırsatlarla birlikte riskleri de getirmiştir. Irak Şiileri ile İran arasındaki tarihi ve mezhepsel bağların yanı sıra ülkedeki iktidar mücadelesinde dış destek arayışı Şiilerin İran'a yakınlaşmasına neden olurken, İran’ınuzun yıllar ortak düşman Bağdat’a karşı işbirliği geliştirdiği Kürtler ile ilişkileri ise bu yeni dönemde görece bozulmuştur. Bu çalışma İran’ın Irak’a yönelik politikalarının temel parametreleri olan Şiiler ve Kürtler ile ilişkilerini analiz ederken,İran’ın, Irak’ta Şii nüfusun yönetimde söz sahibi olmasıyla bu ülkede etkinliğini arttırdığını ancak yerel ve bölgesel dinamiklerin İran’ın daha uzun süre bu etkinliği devam ettirmesine engel olacağını iddia etmektedir. Bu bağlamda Saddam sonrası dönemde İran’ın Irak’a yönelik politikaları analiz edilmektedir.

Iran’s New Iraq Policy After Saddam:From Sociological Dynamics to Political Realities

Relations between Tehran and Baghdad, from the Baath Party's coup in 1968 to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, were neither neighborly nor normal. Therefore, the overthrow of Saddam Hussein can be considered as one of the turning points in the course of Iran-Iraq relations. With the invasion of Iraq by the US, Iran got rid of an enemy like Saddam, while Iraq quickly entered Iran's influence area. However, the US presence in Iraq has also caused serious security concerns for Iran. During this period, while Iran accelerated its nuclear program due to security concerns, it also maintained its priority of ending the US occupation in Iraq and withdrawing its troops. The new political environment that emerged in post-Saddam Iraq brought risks as well as opportunities for Iran. In addition to the historical and sectarian ties between the Iraqi Shiites and Iran, the search for external support in the power struggle in the country caused the Shiites to get closer to Tehran, while Iran's relations with the Kurds, with whom Iran had cooperated against Baghdad for many years, deteriorated relatively during this new period. While this study analyzes Iran’s relations with Shiites and Kurds, which are the main parameters of its policies towards Iraq, it also claimes that Iran has increased its effectiveness in Iraq with the Shiite population's increasing presence in the Iraqi administration, though local and regional dynamics will prevent Iran from continuing this activity for a longer period of time. Consequently, Iran's policies towards post-Saddam Iraq are analyzed in this context.

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