Rusya Federasyonu’nun Güvenlik Strateji Belgeleri Bağlamında Kırım İlhakı’nın Tarihsel-Sembolik ve Askeri-Jeopolitik Analizi

Güvenlik strateji belgeleri bir devletin tehdit algıları, çıkarları ve olası dış politika hamleleri hakkındaki temel kaynaklardır. Söz konusu güvenlik strateji belgeleri arasında ulusal güvenlik konsepti, dış politika konsepti ve askeri doktrinler yer almaktadır. Bu belgeler ışığında bir devletin bölgesel ve küresel gelişmelere nasıl bir dış politik reaksiyon verebileceği net olarak öngörülebilmektedir. Bu bağlamda Rusya Federasyonu (RF)’nun post-Sovyet coğrafyaya yönelik politikalarının ve Avro-Atlantik Blok (NATO ve Avrupa Birliği-AB) ile ilişkilerinin anahatlarını söz konusu belgelerde görebilmek mümkündür. Ukrayna da RF-Avro-Atlantik Blok arasındaki ilişkileri belirleyen faktörler arasında yer almıştır. Bu çerçevede RF-Ukrayna ilişkileri genellikle Avro-Atlantik Blok’un doğu genişlemesi bağlamında değerlendirilmektedir. Fakat doğu genişlemesinin yanı sıra iki devlet arasındaki tarihsel-sembolik ve askeri-jeopolitik ilişkiler de dikkate alınmalıdır. Başka bir ifadeyle Kırım’ın ilhakı sadece güncel jeopolitik gerçekliklere indirgenmemeli, Ukrayna’nın ve Kırım’ın Rus tarih yazımındaki yeri de göz önünde bulundurulmalıdır. Zira RF’nin Ukrayna algısı işgal sürecinde belirleyici olmuştur. Bu çerçevede çalışmada Kırım’ın ilhakı, RF’nin güvenlik strateji belgeleri bağlamında, jeopolitik ve tarihsel gelişmeler ışığında analiz edilecektir. Hiç şüphesiz bu analiz bizce Şubat 2022 de başlayan RF-Ukrayna Savaşı’nın irdelenmesinde de yol gösterici olacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Rusya Federasyonu, Ukrayna, NATO genişlemesi, askeri doktrin, güvenlik strateji belgeleri

Historical-Symbolic and Military-Geopolitical Analysis of Crimea’s Annexation in the Context of the Security Strategy Documents of the Russian Federation

Security strategy documents are the main sources of a state’s threat perceptions, interests, and possible foreign policy steps. These documents include national security concepts, foreign policy concepts and military doctrines. In light of these documents, it is also possible to clearly predict how a state can respond to regional and global developments. In this context, these documents highlight the outlines of the policies of the Russian Federation (RF) toward post-Soviet geography and its relations with the Euro-Atlantic Bloc (NATO and the European Union). Ukraine is also one of the factors determining relations between the RF and the Euro-Atlantic Bloc. Within this frame, relations between the RF and Ukraine are generally assessed in the context of the eastward enlargement of the Euro-Atlantic Bloc. However, in addition to this enlargement, historical-symbolic and military-geopolitical relations between the two states should also be considered. In other words, the annexation of Crimea should be reduced not only to current geopolitical realities but also to the place of Ukraine and Crimea in Russian historiography. After all, the RF’s perception of Ukraine was crucial to the occupation process. Within this framework, the annexation of Crimea will be analyzed in light of geopolitical and historical developments and the context of the RF’s security strategy documents. This analysis will undoubtedly guide the study of the RF-Ukraine War that began in February 2022.

Keywords:

Russian Federation, Ukraine, NATO expansion, military doctrine, security strategy documents,

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