Seçilmiş Geçiş Ekonomileri ve Türkiye’ de Vergi Türlerinin Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi

Maliye politikası araçları arasında önemli bir yere sahip olan vergileme politikası yarattığı sosyolojik, psikolojik, ekonomik ve siyasi etkileri bakımından birçok disiplinin çoklu inceleme konusu arasında yer almaktadır. Özellikle iktisadi yazında vergi politikaların tüketim, tasarruf, yatırım, istihdam, gelir dağılımı gibi iktisadi değişkenleri etkilediğine dair ve ülke ekonomisinin makro ölçekte büyüme ve kalkınmasında önemli payı olduğuna ilişkin araştırmalar söz konusudur. Çalışmada geçiş ülkeleri niteliğinde olan Çekya, Estonya, Macaristan, Litvanya, Letonya, Polonya, Slovakya, Slovenya ve Türkiye’de vergi türleri ile yatırımlar arasındaki ilişki 1998-2017 dönemi için panel sabit etkiler analiz yöntemiyle araştırılmıştır. Çalışma üç açıdan benzer çalışmalardan farklılık göstermektedir. İlk olarak yatırım ve vergi yapısı arasındaki ilişki tek bir vergi veya özel bir vergi açısından analiz edilmemektedir. İkincisi, analizde vergiler birçok vergi açısından ele alınarak yatırımlara etkisi araştırılmaktadır. Üçüncüsü, yatırım ve vergi yapısı arasındaki ilişkiyi doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan ilişki açısından analiz ederek literatüre katkı vermeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada vergi türleri ile yatırımlar arasında negatif ve doğrusal olmayan bir ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca yatırımları maksimum ve minimum kılan vergi eşik değerleri de tahmin edilen regresyonlar aracılığı ile hesaplanmıştır. Buna göre yatırımları minimize eden kurumlar vergisi ve gelir vergisinin değerleri sırasıyla 1,597 ve 7,793 bulunmuştur. Yatırımları maksimize eden katma değer vergisi ve servet üzerinden alınan vergilerin değerleri sırasıyla 12,80 ve 1,15 bulunmuştur. Vergiler ile yatırımlar arasında optimal değerlerin bulunması yatırımları teşvik etmek için uygulanacak olan vergi politikasının bileşimi ve niceliği açısından önem arz etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

vergi yapısı, vergi türleri, yatırımlar, geçiş ülkeleri, Panel Veri Analizi

The Effect of Tax Structure on Investment in Selected Transition Countries and Turkey: Panel Data Analysis

Taxation policy, which has an important place among fiscal policy tools, is among the multiple study subjects of many disciplines in terms of its sociological, psychological, economic, and political effects. There are researches that especially in the economic literature, tax policies affect economic variables such as consumption, savings, investment, employment, income distribution, and tax policies have an important role in the growth and development of the country's economy on a macro scale. In this study, the effect of tax structure on investment in Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Turkey are investigated by the panel data analysis for the period 1998-2017. The study differs from similar studies in three respects. First, the relationship between investment and tax structure is not analyzed in terms of a single tax or a specific tax. Secondly, in the analysis, taxes are examined in terms of many taxes, and their effects on investments are investigated. Thirdly, it aims to contribute to the literature by analyzing the relationship between investment and tax structure in terms of linear and non-linear relations. In the study, a negative and nonlinear relationship was found between tax types and investments. In addition, the tax thresholds that maximize and minimize investments have been calculated through estimated regressions. Accordingly, the values of corporate tax and income tax that minimize investments were found to be 1,597 and 7,793, respectively. The values of value added tax and wealth tax that maximize investments were found to be 12,80 and 1,15, respectively. Finding optimal values between taxes and investments is important in terms of the composition and quantity of the tax policy to be applied to encourage investments.

Keywords:

Tax Structure, Tax Types, Investment, Transition Countries, Panel Data Analysis,

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