TÜRKİYE’DE UZUN DÖNEM EKONOMİK BÜYÜMENİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS VE CCR YÖNTEMLERİYLE TAHMİNİ

Bu çalışmanın iki amacı vardır; birincisi, Genişletilmiş Neo-Klasik Büyüme Modeline dayanan bütüncül bir üretim fonksiyonunu temel alarak 1965-2015 yılları arasında ARDL yaklaşımı ile Türkiye’de uzun dönem ekonomik büyümenin temel belirleyicilerini araştırmaktır. İkincisi ise ARDL yöntemi ile elde edilen sonuçları yeni eş-bütünleşme metotlarından olan FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR yöntemlerinden yararlanarak doğrulamak ve elde edilen sonuçların güvenilirliğini artırmaktır. Ampirik bulgular Türkiye’de uzun dönem ekonomik büyümenin temel belirleyicilerinin sermaye stokundaki ve enerji tüketimindeki artışların olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca sonuçlar, literatürün aksine, beşeri sermayenin ekonomik büyümeye katkısının olmadığını veya varsa zayıf bir etkisinin olduğunu ifade etmektedir.

ESTIMATION OF THE DETERMINANTS OF LONG RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY BY USING THE ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, AND CCR APPROACHES

The aim of this study is twofold; the first one is, by using “Augmented Neo-classical Growth Model” as a base, to investigate the determinants of the long-run economic growth of Turkey benefiting from the ARDL approach for the period of 1965 to 2015, using annual data. The second aim is to confirm and emphasize the results of ARDL approach by using the new co-integration methods of FMOLS, DOLS and CCR. Empirical results show that the determinants of long run economic growth are the growth of physical capital stock and the growth of energy use. However, empirical results support that, different from the literature, the contribution of human capital to economic growth in Turkey is none or weakly statistically significant.

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