TÜRKİYE’DE DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞININ SEKTÖREL İTHALATA ETKİLERİ: BİR ARDL İTHALAT MODELİ ANALİZİ

Bretton Woods Sistemi’nin 1973’de sona ermesini takip eden yıllarda, Türkiye dahil bir çok ülke esnek veya esneğe yakın bir kur sistemini benimsemiştir. Bu gelişme, kurda artan oynaklığa yol açarak dış ticaret üzerinde yansımaları olabilecek bir ortam yaratmıştır. Böylece dış ticaret politikası geliştirmek için, kur oynaklığının dış ticaret üzerine etkilerinin değerlendirilmesi ön koşul haline gelmiştir. Bu amaçla, bu çalışma, Türkiye’de döviz kuru oynaklığının önce toplam ithalat üzerine etkilerini ve daha sonra tüketim ve yatırım malı ithalatı üzerine etkilerini incelemektedir. Bunun için, 1989-2008 yıllarına ait aylık veriler kullanarak, önce kur oynaklığı ve ithalat talebi arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olup olmadığı sınır testiyle irdelenmiş, daha sonra ise bir ARDL hata düzeltme modeli çerçevesinde bu değişkenler arası kısa dönem dinamikler araştırılmıştır. Bulgular, kur oynaklığı ile yatırım malı ithalatı arasında negatif bir ilişki ortaya koyarken, tüketim malı ithalatıyla kur oynaklığı arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olmadığını göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Döviz kuru oynaklığı, sektörel ithalat talebi, ARDL Model

The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Sectoral Imports in Turkey: An Analysis of an ARDL Model for Imports

In the following years after the collapse of the Bretton Woods System in 1973, many countries including Turkey adopted a flexible or a managed floating exchange rate system. This has led to a high volatility in the exchage rates, which is thought to be quite influenatial on foreigh trade. Therefore, it became imperative for policy makers to evaluate the potential effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade. To this end, this study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on import demand in Turkey. Further, the study disaggregates imports into two sectors: import demand on consumption goods and on investment goods (inlcuding intermediate goods) in order to see whether volatility in exchange rate has differing impacts. Using monthly data over 1989-2008 periods, the study firstly performes an ARDL bounds test to check if the variables of interests form a cointegrating relationship and then specifies an ARDL error correction model to investigate the short run dynamics between import demand and volatility. The findings indicate that while volatility and import demand on investment goods are cointegrated and are negatively related, there is no cointegrating relationship between exchange rate volatility and import demand on consumptions goods.

Keywords:

Exchange rate volatility, sectoral import demand, ARDL Model,

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