Özel Tasarrufların Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Seçilmiş MENA Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Çalışma

Ekonomik büyüme için hayati önem taşıyan yatırımlar, genellikle yurt içi ya da yurt dışı tasarruflarla finanse edilir. Ancak yurt dışı tasarruflar, bir ülke parasını aşırı değerlendirerek cari açığı ve ekonomik kırılganlığı artırdığından, yurt içi tasarruflar, yatırımların en güvenilir finansman kaynağıdır. Makroekonomik etkilerinden ve ortaya çıkardığı önemli sonuçlarından dolayı özel tasarrufların ve belirleyicilerinin iyi anlaşılması, gelişmekte olan ekonomiler için önemlidir. Bu çerçevede, çalışmamızın temel amacı, 1997-2016 dönemi için seçilmiş MENA (Cezayir, Mısır, İsrail, Ürdün, Fas ve Türkiye) ülkelerinde özel tasarrufların makroekonomik belirleyicilerini analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla, Panel ARDL/PMG (Havuzlanmış Ortalama Grup) yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre yabancı tasarruflar, özel tasarrufları hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde negatif etkilemektedir. Kişi başına gelirin büyüme oranı, özel tasarrufları uzun dönemde artırırken, kısa dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi yoktur. Reel faiz ve işsizlik oranlarındaki değişmeler özel tasarrufları sadece uzun dönemde negatif etkilemektedir. Bu sonuçlara göre MENA ülkelerinde politika yapıcılar, ekonomik büyümeyi ve istihdamı artırmaya ve yabancı tasarruf bağımlılığını azaltmaya yönelik politikalar uygulamalıdır.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Private Savings: An Investigation on Selected MENA Countries

Investments vital to economic growth are usually financed by domestic or foreign savings. Because foreign savings lead to current account deficits and increases economic vulnerability in an economy by appreciating a country’s currency, domestic savings constitute the most reliable source of finance for investments. Due to their macroeconomic impacts and significant consequences, it is important for developing economies to understand private savings and its determinants well. Against this backdrop, the main purpose of our study is to analyze the macroeconomic determinants of private savings in the selected MENA countries, namely, Algeria, Egypt, Israel Jordan, Morocco, and Turkey over the period 1997-2016. To this end, the Panel ARDL/PMG (Pooled Mean Group) method is used. The overall results show that the impact of foreign savings on private savings is negative in both the short and long run. The GDP per capita growth is positively associated with private savings in the long run, but in the short run, there is no statistically significant relationship between the two variables. Changes in real interest and unemployment rates hamper private savings only in the long run. Relying on these results, policymakers in MENA countries should pursue growth-oriented and employment enhancing policies and implement policies aimed at reducing foreign savings dependency.

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