KÜRESEL KRİZ ÖNCESİ VE SONRASI DÖNEM İÇİN TÜRKİYE'NİN BEVERİDGE EĞRİSİ TAHMİNİ

Bu çalışmada Türkiye İşgücü Piyasası için Ocak 2005 ile Temmuz 2014 tarihleri arasında aylık veriler kullanılarak eşleşme fonksiyonu ve Beveridge Eğrisi tahmin edilmiştir. 2008 yılında yaşanan Küresel Krizin etkilerini görmek için söz konusu dönem iki alt döneme ayrılmıştır. Eşleşme fonksiyonu tahmininde eşleşme teknolojisi ortalama etkinliğini gösteren parametre, zamanla değişen parametre olarak ele alınmış ve tahminler durum- uzay modeli çerçevesinde yapılmıştır. Kriz sonrası dönemde işsizlikteki artış ve açık işlerde yaşanan düşüş, açık işlere uygun işsizlerin eşleştirilmesini kolaylaştırmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye'de açık işler ile işsizlerin eşleştirilme etkinliğini gösteren parametrenin zaman içinde arttığı, buna bağlı olarak da kriz ve sonrası dönemde Türkiye Beveridge Eğrisinin hem eğimini artırdığı hem de sağa doğru kayma gösterdiği bulunmuştur. Bunun yanında kriz öncesi ve sonrası dönemlerde Beveridge Eğrisi'nde kaymalar olduğu ancak alt dönemlerdeki kaymalarda eğiminin değişmediği gözlemlenmiştir.

ESTIMATION OF TURKEY'S BEVERIDGE CURVE FOR THE PERIODS OF THE PRE AND THE POST GLOBAL CRISIS

This paper estimates the Beveridge Curve and Matching Function using monthly data on Turkish Labor Market between January of 2015 and July of 2014. Two sub periods within the period in question are handled separately to identify the effects of Global Crisis in 2008 on Turkish Labor Market and Turkey's Beveridge Curve. The parameter that reflects the average efficiency of matching technology is treated as a time varying parameter in estimating the matching function. Estimates are made on the state-space model. According to the results, it is found that the parameter which represents the average efficiency of matching technology is increasing over time. The increase in unemployment and the shortages in open jobs in the post-crisis periods have led to easily matching the vacancies to appropriate unemployed. The estimation results show that the Turkey's Beveridge Curve has a right sided shift with an increasing slope accompanying, both within the pre and post crises periods. In addition, evidence on shifting of the Beveridge Curve within the pre and post crises periods has been observed however the slope of the curve stayed constant in the sub-periods.

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