Yalçın PAMUK, Uğur DÜNDAR

Kamu Harcamalarının Optimal Boyutu: Türkiye Örneği

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de iktisadi büyümeyi maksimum kılan kamu harcama oranını (toplam kamu harcaması/GSMH) tahmin etmektir. Çalışmanın ilk bölümü, kamu harcaması ve iktisadi büyüme ilişkisine dair tarihi ve teorik çerçeveye odaklanmaktadır. İkinci bölümde ise, Scully zaman serisi yöntemi (1996) kullanılarak Türkiye için kamu kesiminin optimal hacmi tahmin edilmiştir. Scully yöntemi, iktisadi büyüme oranı ile kamu harcama oranını ilişkilendiren bir denklemin regresyonuna dayanır. Data 1950-2006 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Model, Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller (ADF) testi, Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve bir hata düzeltme modeli (ECM) kullanılarak test edilmiştir. Modelde, Türkiye’de optimal kamu kesimi büyüklüğünün GSMH’nın yaklaşık %24.8’ine eşit olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

kamu harcamaları, vergileme, iktisadi büyüme

OPTIMAL SIZE OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES: THE CASE OF TURKEY

The aim of this study is to estimate the public expenditure ratio (total public expenditure/GNP) which maximizes economic growth rate in Turkey. The first part of the study focuses on the historical and theoretical framework of the public expenditure and economic growth relationship. In the second part the optimal size of the public sector in Turkey is estimated using Scully (1996) time series analysis. Scully method, under the balanced budget assumption, is based on a regression the equation that relates the public expenditure ratio and economic growth rate. Data covers the 1950-2006 period. Model is tested by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Johansen (1988, 1995) Cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). In the model, it was concluded that the optimal size of the public sector in Turkey is about 23.5% of GNP.

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