KISA VE UZUN DÖNEMDE DÖVİZ KURLARI İLE BORSA ENDEKSİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN AÇIKLANMASINA YÖNELİK AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

Hisse senedi, tahvil ve döviz gibi finansal varlık fiyat ve/veya fiyat davranışlarının objektif ölçüt ve yöntemlerle belirlenmesi bireysel ve kurumsal yatırımcılara kazancı artırma ya da zararı azaltma gibi çeşitli fırsatlar sunar. Bu çalışmada, finansal varlıkların fiyat hareketleri ile ilgili belirsizliğin giderilmesine yönelik olarak Bayes Teoremi çerçevesinde Dolar/TLve Euro/TL kurlarındaki bir değişmenin BIST 100 endeksine nasıl yansıyacağı belli bir olasılık dahilinde tahmin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada, 2007-2016 dönemi Dolar ve Euro kuru ile BIST 100 endeksi günlük kapanış fiyatları veri olarak kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda döviz kurları ile borsa endeksi arasında kısa dönemde negatif, uzun dönemde pozitif yönlü bir ilişkinin bulunduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu bulgu ise Türkiye’de kısa dönemde, döviz kurlarını belirlemeye yönelik yaklaşımlardan olan “Portföy Dengesi Yaklaşımın” uzun dönemde ise “Geleneksel Yaklaşımın” geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmada ayrıca Dolar kurunun artması durumunda aynı gün itibariyle BIST 100 endeksinin %52,58 olasılıkla yükseleceği, Euro kurunun artması durumunda aynı gün itibariyle BIST 100 endeksinin %53,30 olasılıkla yükseleceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Bayes Teorisi, döviz kurları, borsa, tahmin

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY FOR EXPLAINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATES AND STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM

Determining the price and/or price movements of financial assets such as stocks, bonds and foreign currencies through objective criteria and methods provides various opportunities for individual and institutional investors such as increasing profits or reducing losses. In this study, the reflection of the change in US dollar and Euro currency on BIST 100 index in order to resolve the ambiguity about financial assets within a certain probability by the framework of Bayes Theorem is estimated. In the study, Dollar and Euro exchange rates and BIST 100 index daily closing prices are used as a data covering the period of 2007-2016. As a result of the study, it is found that there is a negative relation between exchange rates and stock exchange index in the short term and a positive relation in the long term. This finding shows that the methods used in determination of the exchange rates such as “Portfolio Balance Approach" in the short term and “Traditional Approach” in the long term are prevalent in Turkey. Besides, it is also found that when Euro exchange rate increases, the BIST 100 index increases with 53,30% probability at the same day and when Dollar exchange rate increases, the BIST 100 index increases with 52,58% probability at the same day.

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