DÖRDÜZ AÇIK HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: BRICS VE MINT ÜLKELERİNE DAİR KANITLAR

Özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde cari işlemler açığı, ekonomik istikrarı önemli ölçüde etkileyen makroekonomik bir gösterge olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Son yıllarda bütçe açığı, tasarruf-yatırım açığı ve cari işlemler açığı arasındaki ilişkide, çıktı açığının da önemli bir faktör olabileceği düşüncesi önem kazanmıştır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada 2002-2021 dönemi için BRICS ve MINT ülkelerinde dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerliliği Durbin-Hausman eşbütünleşme testi ve Panel ARDL modeli ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular tüm panel için sadece uzun dönemde dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Ülke bazında sonuçlara göre ise, kısa dönemde Brezilya, Rusya ve Güney Afrika’da, uzun dönemde ise Brezilya, Rusya, Çin, Meksika ve Endonezya’da dördüz açık hipotezinin geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Ekonomik büyüme, Üçüz açık, Dördüz açık, Panel eşbütünleşme, Panel ARDL

The Validity of Quadruple Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence From BRICS and MINT Countries

The current account deficit is a macroeconomic indicator affecting significantly economic stability, especially in developing countries. In the relationship of the current account balance with the budget deficit and saving-investment deficits, the view that the output gap may be an important factor in exhibiting the role of the real economy on the current account deficit has become crucial today. In this context, this paper proposes to investigate quadruple deficit in BRICS and MINT countries using the Durbin-Hausman panel cointegration test and panel ARDL model during the period of 2002-2021. The findings show the Quadruple Deficit Hypothesis is valid for all panel only in the long-run period. According to country-specific results, this hypothesis is valid for Brazil, Rusia and South Africa in the short-run period while Brazil, Russia, China, Mexico, and Indoesia in the long-run period.

Keywords:

Ekonomik büyüme, Üçüz açık, Dördüz açık, Panel eşbütünleşme, Panel ARDL,

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