Yaşam Döngüsü Şirketlerin Hasılat Tahmin Edilebilirliğini Etkiler mi? Borsa İstanbul Bulguları

Bu çalışmada, yaşam döngüsü ile gelir öngörülebilirliği arasındaki ilişki test edilmiştir. Gelir öngörülebilirliği üç yıllık hasılatın standart sapmasının ortalama toplam varlıklara bölünmesiyle elde edilmiştir. Yaşam döngüsü tahminimiz, Dickinson'ın (2011) nakit akışı modeline dayanmaktadır. Hansen vd. (2018), giriş, büyüme, olgunlaşma, durgunluk ve düşüş aşamaları için sırasıyla 0, 0,25, 0,50, 0,75 ve 1 atadık. Modelimizi tahmin etmek için firma/yıl sabit etkiler regresyonunu kullandık. Ampirik kanıtlarımız, hasılat oynaklığı azaldıkça şirketlerin hasılat tahmin edilebilirliğinin arttığına işaret ediyor.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yasam Döngüsü, Borsa Istanbul, Hasılat Tahmin Edilebilirliği

Does Life-Cycle Stage Affect Companies’ Revenue Predictability? Evidence from Borsa Istanbul

In this paper we test the relationship between life-cycle stages and revenue predictability. We used three-year revenue divided by average total assets as the revenue predictability. Our life-cycle estimation is based on Dickinson’s (2011) cash-flow proxy model. Instead of using dummy variables and omitted the category with least observations, following Hansen et al. (2018), we assigned values of 0, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, and 1 for the stages of introduction, growth, mature, shake-out, and decline, respectively. We used firm/year fixed effects regression to estimate our model. Our empirical evidence points out that companies' revenue predictability increases as the revenue volatility decreases.

Keywords:

Life-cycle Stage, Borsa Istanbul, Revenue Predictability,

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