Afganistan’da Geçiş Safhası, Bölge Ülkeleri ve 2014 Sonrası Öngörüler

11 Eylül sonrası küresel güç mücadelesinin birinci adresi konumunda bulunan Afganistan, Obama’nın yeni Afganistan-Pakistan (AfPak) stratejisi ile birlikte yeni bir döneme girişin eşiğinde bulunmaktadır. 2009 yılında bizzat Başkan Obama tarafından hazırlanan söz konusu yeni stratejide Afganistan’da ulus ve devlet inşası ile demokrasinin kurulması hedeflerinden vazgeçilmekte; buna karşılık Afgan Hükümetinin kapasitesinin artırılması, uluslararası aktörlerin ve bölge ülkelerinin soruna ortak edilmesi ve Taliban ile uzlaşılarak siyasi çözüm bulunması vurgulanmaktadır. Bu da haliyle bölgede hem işgalin gerekçesi hem de gelinen aşama itibarıyla yeni bir tartışmayı beraberinde getirmektedir. Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada, yeni strateji kapsamında geçiş safhasında gelinen son aşama, Afganistan’ın genel güvenlik durumu, 2014’e giden süreçte yaşanması muhtemel gelişmeler, ABD ve NATO’nun yeni rolü ile ilgili değerlendirmeler kapsamında 2014 ve sonrasına yönelik bir takım öngörülerde bulunulacaktır. Çalışma kapsamında, ayrıca, Afganistan’da istikrarı sağlamaya yönelik aktörler-dinamikler bazında uyumlaştırıcı yaklaşımlar üzerinde durulma suretiyle, 2014 sonrası ortaya çıkması muhtemel yeni sorunları aşmaya yönelik bölgesel örgütlenmeler üzerinde durulacak ve bu kapsamda yeni güvenlik ve işbirliği mekanizmalarının hayata geçirilebilmesiyle ilgili öneriler üzerinde durulacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Yeni AfPak Stratejisi, Geçiş, Güvenlik Sorumluluğu, Afgan Güvenlik Kuvvetleri, Afganlaşma

Afghanistan Transition and Perspectives beyond 2014

Afghanistan, which has became the focal point of the global power struggle after the 9/11, is on the verge of a new era with Obama’s new Afghanistan-Pakistan (AfPak) strategy prepared in 2009. With this new strategy, the aim of nation and state building, and establishment of democracy in Afghanistan was given up. Instead, it is emphasized that there is a need to enhance Afghan Government’s capacity, attach the international actors and the regional countries to the problem and need for political solution by reconciling Taliban. As a result, this brings with it a debate about the justification of occupation and the stage that has been achieved. Therefore, in this study, some predictions will be made about 2014 and after in the context of the current situation in transition process, the overall security situation in Afghanistan, probable developments in the process leading to 2014, and the new roles of U.S. and NATO. And also, approaches to enhance stability in Afghanistan at the level of actors-dynamics, regional organizations aims to solve new problems those are likely to occur after 2014, and suggestions about how to construct new security and cooperation mechanisms will be discussed.

Keywords:

New AfPak Strategy, Transition, Security Responsibility, Afghan Security Forces, Afghanization,

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