Askeri Harcamaların Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye’den Kanıtlar

Günümüzde askeri harcamalar, ülkelerin kamu harcamaları içerisinde önemli bir paya sahiptir. Askeri harcamalar, kamu harcamaları içerisinde önemli bir paya sahip olmakla birlikte bu harcamaların ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınma sürecinde verimsiz olduğu kabul edilmektedir. Söz konusu askeri harcamalardaki artışlar, ekonomik ve sosyal nitelikteki alanlara daha az harcama yapılmasına neden olabilmektedir. Ekonomik ve sosyal nitelikteki alanlara daha az kaynak ayrılması ise büyüme ve istihdamı etkilemektedir. Buradan hareketle yapılan bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de askeri harcamaların ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik üzerindeki etkisinin araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri incelemek için 1988-2019 dönemine dayalı bir veri seti kullanılmıştır. Maki (2012) eşbütünleşme testinin bulgularına göre askeri harcamalar, ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Çalışmada uzun dönem katsayılarının tahmini için FMOLS tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, askeri harcamaların, uzun vadede ekonomik büyümeyi ve işsizliği artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye’de askeri harcamaların istihdama dayalı olmayan bir büyümeye neden olduğunu göstermiştir.

THE EFFECT OF MILITARY EXPENDITURES ON ECONOMIC GROWTHAND UNEMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Nowadays, military expenditures have an important share in public expenditures of countries. Although military expenditures have an important share in public expenditures, it is considered that military expenditures are unproductive in the economic growth and development process. The point in question, increases in military expenditures may cause less spending on economic and social fields. Less resource allocation to economic and social fields affects growth and employment. Thus, in this study, it is aimed to investigate the effect of military spending on economic growth and unemployment in Turkey. A data set which based on the period 1988-2019 was used to examine the relations between variables. According to the findings of Maki (2012) cointegration test, a cointegration relationship was found between military expenditure (ME), economic growth (EG) and unemployment (UNEMP). The FMOLS estimator was used for the estimation of long-term coefficients in the study. According to the results, it has been determined that military expenditures increase economic growth and unemployment in the long-term. This results showed that military expenditure led to growth that not based on employment in Turkey.

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